Shell Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS66 KLOX 190107
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
607 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

***UPDATED AVIATION SECTION***

.SYNOPSIS...18/215 PM.

Steady cooling through Friday with below normal temperatures
continuing through the weekend. There will ample low clouds each
morning through the weekend. Gusty onshore winds will affect
interior areas through the next week and will be strongest Friday.
A significant warming trend remains on track for next week with
heat impacts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...18/131 PM.

Marine layer stratus clouds have been slow to clear today,
especially across Ventura and LA counties. This is due mostly to
strong onshore flow, helping increase the depth of the marine
layer - up to 3000-4000 ft this morning - and push the stratus
further inland. A coastal eddy south of Point Conception may also
be contributing to the persistent low clouds. Everywhere below
the lingering stratus/stratocumulus was still experiencing
temperatures mostly in the 60s at noon today. The longer the
clouds linger over some of the inland valleys the less likely the
temperatures are to reach upper 70s to lower 80s and some of the
areas closer to the coast may only reach the upper 60s.

The June Gloom trend will continue through the short term with
moderate to strong onshore flow and the deeper marine layer
forecast to continue through this weekend. There may be enough
lift esp near the foothills to produce some morning drizzle.
Clearing will be slow today and many beaches will not clear at all
esp across VTA county.

The upper level flow will turn weakly cyclonic on Friday with a
shortwave trough moving through and will then become zonal on
Saturday. Hgts will remain near 588 dam through the period. Much
more importantly will be the strong onshore flow both to the N and
E. The push to the east will be near 10 mb each afternoon.

The passing shortwave Friday combined with the already strong
onshore flow and deep marine layer should induce slightly stronger
southwesterly downsloping winds into the Antelope Valley compared
to previous days which saw peak gusts up to 35-45 mph. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for Friday afternoon with the anticipated
slight uptick in magnitude.

A cooling trend will continue through Friday, with afternoon max
temperatures cooling another 1-3 degrees compared to today.
Only a few of the warmest vly locations will see highs reach or
eclipse 80 while the rest of the area sits in the 70s (the
nearshore area will actually not escape the 60s). Max temp will
change little on Saturday (perhaps a few degrees of warming across
San Obispo County) as the area remains swaddled by the cool
marine air and zonal flow. A few degrees of warming is expected on
Sunday as guidance shows onshore flow weakening slightly and H5
heights rising slightly.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...18/212 PM.

Zonal flow will continue over the area through at least Monday
morning before anticyclonic flow develops as an upper level high
strengthens ESE of SoCal. The onshore flow will weaken just a
little bit. This should decrease the morning cloud coverage a
little bit and allow for somewhat better and faster clearing. Look
for around 3 to 6 degrees of warming is possible Monday as hgts
rise a little and compresses the marine layer.

Models have backed off a little on the degree of warming slated
for next Tue-Thu. Hgts should still warm to an above normal with
global ensembles supporting 593-596 dam, which will be around the
90th-95th percentile of climatology. At the sfc, mdt-stg onshore
flow will persist in the W to E direction, but the onshore push
to the north will weaken through the period. The higher hgts will
likely smoosh the marine layer to 1000 ft or less which will
greatly reduce the amount of clouds making it into the vlys in the
mornings. This compression will strengthen the marine inversion
which will hinder the clearing near the shore. The current
forecast calls for 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day Tue and Wed
with little change on Thursday. This warming would bring vly temps
into the mid 80s and lower 90s. Latest NBM has good chances (50%)
of reaching 100 degrees across the Antelope Valley and even
slight chances (10%) in Paso Robles Wed-Fri. An Extreme Heat Watch
was issued for Tue-Thu for parts of LA County, including LA, with
temperatures expected to reach the 80s, to around 90 east of
Downtown LA. With an influx of people, especially those not from
the area, and events the risk of heat impacts will be greater,
despite forecast HeatRisk magnitudes of high-end Minor to low-end
Moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0106Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was near 5000 ft with a temperature of 20 Celsius.

High confidence in KPMD & KWJF staying VFR with gusty southwest
winds.

Moderate confidence in ceilings at all other airports. High
confidence in flight categories (MVFR-VFR). Low confidence in
timing (+/- 5 hours).

KLAX...High confidence in MVFR ceilings forming tonight. Low
confidence in timing (+/- 5 hours). No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in MVFR ceilings forming tonight with
slightly stronger than usual onshore winds in the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...18/250 PM.

Fairly high confidence in winds and seas staying below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through Saturday, but typically
gusty winds of 15 to 20 knots will form each afternoon and
evening, mainly over western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel and southward to San Miguel Island. Lower confidence
after Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...18/241 PM.

A long period south to southwest swell (14 seconds and 16
seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through at
least Friday. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through
Thursday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet on south-
facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, and Los
Angeles County Beaches. Portions of the Southern Santa Barbara
County Beaches could see surf to 2 to 4 feet.

High tides will continue to lower and should stay below 6.5 feet
MLLW. The coastal flooding risk has lowered significantly as a
result.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
      Thursday evening for zones 88-368-372-373-379-380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM to 10 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SB/Rorke
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Batz
BEACHES...Batz
SYNOPSIS...Black/SB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox