Russian River, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS66 KMTR 270046
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

 - Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine
   and beach conditions through Wednesday morning

 - Cooler, unsettled weather conditions remain possible through
   Thursday

 - Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Cool conditions are forecast to prevail today in wake of the early
morning frontal passage. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to
be in the middle-to-upper 50s to middle 60s near the coast with
middle 60s to lower 70s across the interior with amble amount of
sunshine. Speak of sunshine, there is also a chance of rain showers
over Napa County through this evening as the forecast calls for
generally 150-250 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Some of these rain
showers (if they develop) may move across the interior East Bay this
evening before the loss of daytime heating reduces the instability
aloft. It will also remain breezy through the evening and into
tonight, especially near the coast and in the higher terrain
across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Onshore winds will continue
with gusts of 30-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across
the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.

As the cut-off low pressure lingers over northern (today) and
central (tomorrow through Thursday), we are forecasting unsettled
weather conditions to prevail. However, wind speeds are forecast to
diminish slightly. With similar conditions expected on Wednesday, the
greatest potential to see more than 0.10" (15-25% probability) will
be across the interior Bay Area and Monterey/San Benito County.
There is also a chance of thunderstorms, yet they largely remain
less than 15%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

On Thursday, there is a greater potential for rain showers across
the region with the mid/upper level cut-off low forecast to be just
off of the Bay Area/Central Coast coastline. Thus, PWAT values are
forecast to be around 1.00". However, the thunderstorm potential
will be less as the atmosphere becomes more stable. The NBM
probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" remain around 10-25% from
11 PM Wednesday night - 11 PM Thursday morning. That said, the
probabilities from the convective-allowing ensemble guidance is
greater than 50% of reaching or exceeding 0.25" across places
outside of the North Bay. All that said, looking like a wide range
of possibilities with varying outcomes as far as rainfall amounts
go, yet widespread flooding concerns remains very low. Just expect
wet roadways across the region during periods of rainfall.

The low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather early
this week will finally shift eastward with a shortwave ridge
building in to the Bay Area/Central Coast. However, more zonal flow
will bring a slight warming and drying trend to the region and is
forecast to prevail into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through the
North and East Bays. Thunderstorms are most likely to impact APC
with some potential to impact LVK as well this afternoon and
evening. Shower chances generally decrease by late this evening but
are expected to increase again tomorrow afternoon/evening. Gusty
winds continue through this evening before diminishing overnight.
Another round of breezy to gusty winds is expected across the region
tomorrow but gusts should be weaker tomorrow than they were today
(potentially peaking between 20 to 25 knots). Generally expecting
CIGs to stay above 3000 ft tonight but CIGs may temporarily dip into
MVFR conditions before rising again.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty NW winds continue through this evening with
winds trending downwards overnight. Breezy to gusty winds are
expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening but should be weaker
than they were today. Chances for scattered light rain increase
tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence that a shower will
directly impact SFO is low. CIGs are expected to return overnight
but should stay above 3000 ft.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this
afternoon as MVFR CIGs have moved in and our of the region. Gusty
onshore winds are expected to weaken overnight with breezy onshore
winds expected to return again tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance
scattered showers will impact MRY and SNS again early tomorrow
morning but confidence remains low. High resolution guidance keeps
storms tied to the elevated terrain but cannot rule out a shower or
two making it farther north. VFR conditions return by late tomorrow
morning with shower chances returning tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Fresh northwest winds will continue with widespread strong to
gale force gusts over the coastal waters through tonight. Gusty
winds will develop over the bays as well. Rough seas will build
to between 12 to 15 feet tonight into late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Canepa

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