Point Reyes Station, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS66 KMTR 200420
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
920 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves
   and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast

 - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with below normal
   temperatures expected this weekend

 - Temperatures warm and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by
   midweek across the interior

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1248 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

Interesting weather setup across the region today and it`s a tale
of the upper and low portions of the atmosphere. Let`s first talk
about the lower and more impactful to the Bay Area and Central
Coast. A solid marine layer, nearly 3,000 feet, this morning was
loaded with ample low level moisture. Orographic lift and subtle
broad ascent aloft led to drizzlefest. This was well advertised
for several days and this morning was the real deal. Automated
gages around the region picked a few hundredths over the last 12
hours, most notably along the coast and coastal mts. As for the
upper level portion of the atmosphere: a jet max, a weak
shortwave/upper low, and abnormally high PWATs led to showers and
thunderstorms north of the Bay Area. We did see a few high clouds
clip the N Bay, but better forcing and moisture was to the north.

Given the deep nature of the marine layer and persistent onshore
flow several a few spots are struggling to see ample sunshine
this afternoon, especially along the coast and N bay. Elsewhere
across the interior is seeing sun this afternoon. Despite the sun,
general consensus across the region shows a slight cooler trend
across the region. One final highlight for the nearterm are the
winds. The thermal difference from the cloudy coast and inland sun
will lead to another afternoon of gusty onshore flow. Gusts of
20-30 mph seems plausible with local gusts up to 40 mph
(gaps/passes).

Tonight through Saturday: Upper level trough along the West Coast
and low level onshore flow will usher the marine layer back in.
Just like this morning, coastal drizzle will be possible. Saturday
day will be very similar to Friday: morning clouds clearing back
to the coast, below average temps, and breezy to gusty onshore
flow in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 135 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

By the end of the weekend we begin to see a shift in the longwave
pattern over the West. The upper level trough finally begins to
lose its grip and is initially replaced with shortwave ridging
Sunday into Monday. Monday and beyond the large upper level ridge
currently shunted into Mexico begins to surge north. Therefore
500mb heights begin to rise and 850mb temps warm. What does all of
this mean for the Bay Area and Central Coast? The marine layer
will begin to compress and temperatures will begin to warming. The
trend will be more subtle Sunday into Monday, but therefore after
a more marked warming trend will develop. By the middle of next
week interior locations will see some packets of Moderate
HeatRisk with temps soaring into the 90s. As of now, the forecast
does bring some nighttime relief limiting overall HeatRisk
concerns. This could change between now and then.

This was noted on the previous discussion and worth noting again.
As the upper ridge builds over over the Desert SW next week it
then shifts eastward slightly. The eastward shift allows a plume
a moisture to surge north on the western periphery of the ridge.
Longer range guidance brings the moisture north along Baja on
Tuesday and CA Wednesday/Thursday. Good way to describe this
scenario is low chance high impact. We don`t have anything
officially in the forecast for thunderstorms, but we`ll need to
keep an eye on it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Widespread VFR conditions with moderate SW to W breezes (11-15kt)
this afternoon. Most terminals have peaked in afternoon gusts
with some in excess of 15-20kt. Winds will weaken into the
overnight hours. The marine layer will return later this evening
resulting in widespread MVFR ceilings across the region. Coastal
sites may see some drizzle around sunset time through midnight.
Any accumulating precipitation is expected to remain very light,
between 0.02-0.03 inches, and may cause a slight reduction in
visibility.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions this afternoon with SW moderate
winds with strong gusts in excess of 22 kt. Winds will weaken
after sunset. As the marine layer deepens to around 2500 feet
overnight, MVFR ceilings are expected to impact the terminal as
early as 08Z Saturday and persist through 19Z Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...SW wind and gusty pattern is similar to SFO.
MVFR ceilings will develop slightly after SFO (09-10Z) and dissipate
to SCT before SFO does (17-18Z). Will remain patchy through the late
morning and become fully VFR by 19Z.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR paired with moderate breezes this
afternoon will begin to weaken after sunset. Gusts around 18 to
20 kts at SJC and OAK. MVFR ceilings will impact OAK first around
07Z Saturday followed by SJC a couple hours later (09Z Saturday).
Winds ease overnight before increasing again Saturday morning when
the stratus begins to scatter out of their respective areas.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions with moderate onshore
winds this afternoon with gusts in excess of 20 kts will begin to
weaken after sunset. Another round of MVFR ceilings return this
evening, impacting SNS first around 03Z and MRY by 05Z Saturday.
Medium confidence on the timing of stratus at MRY as it may be
intermittent at times. There also might be some light drizzle
associated with the marine layer as it comes onshore, similar to
this morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 920 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Winds will increase becoming fresh to strong out of the west into
the early evening hours. Hazardous conditions for small craft are
expected across the San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay
and Monterey Bay. Long period southwest swell will persist into
the weekend with moderate W/SW winds across the outer waters.
Winds will briefly ease Saturday but will increase again across
the outer northern water early Sunday into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist
through early Sunday as energetic storms in the Southern
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions
are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped
beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa
Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast
beaches continues through late Saturday night. Be sure to check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Malarkey
MARINE...Canepa

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