Point Mugu, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS66 KLOX 020722
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1122 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...01/120 PM.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Monday with some
patches of dense morning fog near the coast. Another warming
trend will kick off on Tuesday, with near record high temperatures
possible by Wednesday along with moderate Santa Ana winds.
Another more pronounced cooling trend to follow after Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...01/753 PM.

***UPDATE***

Mainly weak northeast to north winds are lingering across the
western San Gabriel Mountains, with moderate north winds over the
western Santa Barbara South Coast. Offshore gradients are trending
from weakly offshore to weakly onshore this evening and overnight.
Slightly stronger northerly gradients are noted over western Santa
Barbara County. The result will be mainly weak winds across much
of the area. Cooler temperatures and some improvement of the very
dry conditions are expected Monday, ahead of increasing Santa Ana
wind and rising temperatures starting Tuesday.

The main forecast question for the overnight period is a chance of
patchy low clouds and dense fog forming over the coastal waters,
potentially covering much of the Southern California Bight late
tonight into Monday morning. As for coastal land areas, the most
likely location for low clouds and fog is the LA Basin, followed
by the Ventura beaches near Oxnard.

***From Previous Discussion***

Offshore flow continues to weaken this afternoon as a weak system
moves through the Pac NW. Onshore trends will continue into Monday
possibly resulting in some patchy low clouds and dense fog along
the coast south of Pt Conception. Temperatures will continue their
downward trend as well but still 5-10 degrees above normal in most
areas.

Then quickly returning back to previous programing Tue-Thu with
increasing offshore flow, gusty Santa Ana winds in the usual
areas, and unseasonably warm temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees
above normal. The hottest day will be Wednesday when highs may
touch 90 degrees across inland coast and valley areas of
LA/Ventura counties. The Santa Ana winds will have better upper
support this time, also peaking on Wednesday with gusts up to 50
mph in the mountains and 25-40 mph elsewhere in the favored
Santa Ana wind areas. Could see some isolated peaks around 60 mph
in the San Gabriel Mountains and the Santa Monicas. This Santa Ana
event also has more of an easterly trajectory to it which usually
also favors the Oxnard/Camarillo plain for gusty winds.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...01/210 PM.

Another very warm Santa Ana type day on Thursday, though likely
at least a little cooler with less wind as high pressure aloft
will be shifting east as another trough approaches the Pac NW.
May still be some advisory level winds Thursday but upper support
is weakening at that point.

More pronounced cooling Friday but still at least 5-10 degrees
below normal. Beyond that there are some mixed signals in the
models. While there are still a few ensemble solutions indicating
at least a chance of some light rain by next weekend, the vast
majority push that potential into the following week around the
11th or 12th of Feb. In the meantime, it looks like the most
likely outcome for next weekend is continued dry weather with
temperatures still well above normal and possibly another light to
moderate Santa Ana wind event.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2349Z.

At 2340Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. There is a 40% chance of VFR
conditions through the period at KPRB. With pressure gradients
trending onshore, there is increasing confidence of LIFR
cigs/vsbys returning to coastal areas south of Point Conception
late tonight into Monday morning. For KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KOXR,
KCMA, and KSBA there is a 20 percent chance of no cigs, but also
an equal 20 percent chance of VLIFR vsbys down to 1/4SM in fog.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected at other airfields.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Increasing confidence of
LIFR cigs/vsbys returning late tonight or early Monday morning.
However, there is a 20 percent chance of no cigs, but also a
20 percent chance of VLIFR vsbys down to 1/4SM in fog.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/1112 PM.

For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point
Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Expecting Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds to gradually decrease Monday,
with SCA level seas lingering into Monday night. Tuesday through
Thursday, offshore northeast winds will develop each morning, and
there is a 30-40% chance for localized gusts near SCA levels for
the near shore waters around Morro Bay and near the Channel
Islands. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the
outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds
may linger into the following week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday a
moderately long-period W swell will bring seas of 4-8 feet to the
southern inner waters. Then Tuesday night through Wednesday and
potentially into Thursday morning, local areas of SCA level
northeast winds will be possible from Ventura Harbor south through
Malibu and off the coast of Orange County. Northwest winds should
increase to SCA levels over the waters early next week, especially
Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 4 AM PST Monday
      through Monday evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Monday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox