Palo Verde, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS65 KPSR 062032
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
130 PM MST Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will be common through much of the
week as high pressure prevails over the area.

- A fairly strong weather system will affect the region over the
weekend leading to breezy conditions, cooler temperatures, and
increasing rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
A compact shortwave and associated jet streak were propagating
through southern California early this afternoon thrusting expansive
mid/high cloud cover inland along with increasing ascent. While
total column PWAT exceeding 0.75" and above the 95th percentile of
climatology have advected over much of the CWA, the saturated layer
remains confined above H7 with only 5 g/kg mixing ratios in the sfc-
H7 layer. This stratification incurs substantial dry air in the sub-
cloud layer essentially precluding little more than virga over lower
desert communities and sprinkles/light rain over mountainous
locations. The aforementioned shortwave will quickly progress into
New Mexico overnight with midlevel flow becoming NW and introducing
a much drier atmospheric column into Arizona.

Forecast confidence over the next 72 hours is excellent as both
ensemble solutions and numerical guidance exhibits very narrow
spread featuring low amplitude ridging temporarily building into the
SW Conus behind the exiting shortwave. With H5 heights steady within
a 576-579dm range, temperatures should warm into a +10F to +15F
anomaly with readings peaking on Wednesday under the ridge axis and
widespread subsidence.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
High pressure will continue to encompass the region on Thursday
resulting in continued dry conditions and well above normal
temperatures. Temperatures Thursday will be similar to Wednesday
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s (mid to upper 80s) across
the lower deserts (higher terrain), which is around 10 degrees above
normal.

By the end of the week, ensembles continue to point towards a
pattern change for our region. Ensembles show a closed low pressure
system moving onshore of central CA on Friday, which will result in
heights starting to lower across AZ. Ensembles show H5 heights going
from 576-579 dm on Thursday to 573-576 dm on Friday. With lowering
heights, temperatures will also start to cool with afternoon high
temperatures falling into the upper 80s to low 90s (low to mid 80s)
across the lower deserts (higher terrain). The low pressure system
looks to weaken as it moves onshore this weekend and eventually get
wrapped up into a trough digging out of the Pacific NW and
eventually slowly progress eastward into our region by the end of
the weekend.

However, there remains a decent amount of uncertainty within the
ensemble members in the exact track and strength of this system as
it moves onshore. If the system is stronger and deeper than
precipitation chances will increase across the region as the system
will bring in more moisture. However, if the system is weaker and
shallower than precipitation chances may be confined to the higher
terrain areas. Additionally this system could bring breezy
conditions to the region. Either way temperatures will decrease and
look to fall back into the 80s (upper 60s to mid 70s) across the
lower deserts (higher terrain) this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday
look to fall back to near to even slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern will be the atypical wind pattern expected
through today and into Wednesday morning. E`rly directions should be
favored through most of the afternoon, but a brief window of VRB and
even W`rly directions cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the typical
full afternoon/evening W`rly shift is not anticipated today. Rather,
the more sustained W`rly component is shown overnight, mainly at
KPHX, due to terrain influences. Considerable cloud cover will
prevail over the region through tonight with the lowest bases around
12k ft.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds at KIPL will favor a W`rly component, with perhaps a few gusts
20-25 kt during the evening, while KBLH should see extended periods
of VRB conditions through Wednesday morning. BKN-OVC skies will
begin to clear heading into this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
during the upcoming work week. MinRHs will be in the 10-20% range
across the lower deserts today and in the 20-40% range across the
higher terrain areas. Lower RH values return for the remainder of
the workweek with minRH falling to 10-20% region wide. Overnight
recoveries will be good to excellent overnight tonight (40-60%
across lower elevations and 60-100% across the higher terrain).
Overnight recoveries then fall to 25-60% for the remainder of the
workweek. The increase in moisture today will result in some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances across the
higher terrain in northern and eastern AZ this afternoon. Elevated
winds are once again expected during the mid and late morning hours
today with gusts of 25-35 mph possible across the higher terrain and
15-25 mph possible across the lower deserts in eastern Maricopa and
NW Pinal Counties. Lighter winds are then expected for the remainder
of the workweek. This weekend a weather system will start to move
into the region bringing breezy conditions, chances for
precipitation, and cooler temperatures to the region.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich