Fort Bidwell, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS65 KREV 182101
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Summer-like heat will maintain widespread moderate to areas of
  major HeatRisk today. Widespread minor with isolated moderate
  HeatRisk tomorrow will reflect the cooler, more seasonal
  temperatures arriving for the weekend.

* Thunderstorm activity increasing today and peaking Friday. This
  will bring impacts to fire, recreation, travel and aviation on
  both days.

* A warming trend resumes for next week, with a return of typical
  afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds leftover from last night`s showers and storms demonstrate the
existing moisture in mid and upper levels of the atmosphere as the
surge of subtropical influence and the upper trough move into the
region. Various model guidance shows CAPE fields blossoming
across the Sierra and gradually spilling over into the Sierra
Front. CAPE fields will start over the terrain, with added
orographic influence boasting values ranging 2000-3000 J/kg
depending on the guidance and timing. Some solutions represent
values spilling to the Sierra Front in the later portion of the
afternoon, and remaining into the overnight hours. This suggests
elevated instability support for overnight showers and storms to
linger into Friday morning. Today`s chances (15-35%) focus on the
Sierra for storm initiation with the same potential for
lightning. Upper level winds are expected to sweep storms to the
north once they grow to an appropriate height to realize the upper
jet steering winds. Hazards for today include possible brief
heavy rain under storm cores, gusty and erratic outflow winds up
to 50-60 mph, frequent lightning and potential for small hail
accumulations with stronger storms capable of producing isolated
instances of up to 1 inch hail. For outdoor recreation or work,
have multiple sources for receiving weather warnings, pay
attention to the skies and have plans in place for sheltering
should a storm develop overhead or nearby.

The trough advances on Friday, bringing another round of similar
parameters of CAPE with a slight increase in atmospheric moisture
content. If the overnight convection holds into Friday morning, we
could start the day with storms over far northwestern Nevada and
northeastern California. Another solution keeps the clouds from
the overnight convection, that may act as a capping mechanism for
instability into Friday morning. Whichever solution, expect cloudy
morning skies once again, with a ~5% chance for ongoing showers
to linger. As the afternoon heating develops, guidance suggests
the cloud field will lift to the northeast, as showers and storms
once again initiate along the Sierra. Similar storm motions will
steer the storms to the north-northeast, which will introduce the
threat to the Basin and Range into the late afternoon. So, similar
weather parameters will produce similar hazards on Friday, but
these will have more widespread coverage than today`s showers and
storms. Shower chances also increase and move slightly
northeastward, with a focus on Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe
counties where chances range 40-60%, and an area that includes
Reno-Carson City-Minden to the Smith and Mason valleys and out to
Fallon and Lovelock, where chances will range 30-80%.
Additionally, the potential exists for blowing dust over dry lake
beds and desert sinks, such as the Carson Sink or Black Rock
Playa, will emerge as strong gusty outflows blow northeast across
the Basin and Range.

Both days present critical fire weather danger, today more so for
a lightning threat, Friday for the widespread lightning threat as
well as areas of low relative humidity and gusty winds across
Mineral County. See the Red Flag Warnings as well as the Fire
Weather section of this discussion.

Behind the trough, we will take temperatures back toward seasonal
readings, with upper 80s to near 90 across western Nevada valleys
and Sierra valleys with upper 70s to low 80s. We also return to
typical summer afternoon breezes. The ridging pattern resumes
heating next week, sending temperatures back to the upper 90s to
near 100 across western Nevada and upper 80s to near 90 for Sierra
valleys. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Density altitude concerns continue today at terminals in NE CA and
  W NV due to afternoon heating.

* Showers and storms developing within the region starting around 21-22Z
  today. The Sierra and Sierra Front have around a 15-35% chance
  for precipitation today. Storms may contain increased gusty
  outflow winds up to 55 kts, brief periods of heavy rain and
  frequent lightning. Terrain obscuration, LLWS and turbulence may
  also be present near storm cores. MVFR conditions are possible
  at most TAF sites should a storm develop or pass nearby. Another
  round of showers and storms is forecast for Friday with
  increased chances and coverage which expect to bring similar
  aviation concerns. 078/HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns today and Friday with thunderstorm potential
across the region. Antecedent hot and dry conditions with poor
overnight recoveries have helped in drying fuels further which also
increases fire danger.

Storms will move quickly toward the north-northeast once developed,
with a mix of wet and dry storm modes. This increases potential for
dry lightning strikes outside of wet storm cores as well as dry
storms that produce more lightning than moisture. Gusty, erratic
outflows of 50-60 mph are possible, increasing the threat of rapid
wind direction shifts.

An area over Mineral County (US-95 and east) will have a lesser
threat of storms, but will retain the Red Flag Warning due to RH
around 10-15% and the potential for gusts from gusty outflow winds
that could reach up to 60 mph.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today across the Sierra Front from 1
pm to 10 pm.

A Red Flag Warning is issued for Friday, see details in the
Red Flag Warning product.
078/HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ458.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-421.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ423-429.

     Heat Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday NVZ004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ270-278.

&&

$$