Fernbrook, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS66 KSGX 022202
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
202 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler today with temperatures still be above seasonal
averages. Patchy dense fog over the coastal waters could move
ashore again this evening, becoming more widespread tonight into
Tuesday morning. Warmer Tuesday through Thursday with periods of
weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds. Cooler with a return of
onshore flow Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Mostly sunny this afternoon with a few high clouds. Temperatures
are generally lower than yesterday with some coastal and valley
locationa as much as 10-15 degrees lower than at this time
yesterday. Surface pressure gradients are trending weaker offshore
with -3.9 mb SAN-TPH. A weak sea breeze has developed west of the
mtns.

From previous forecast...
High-resolution models indicate a return of low clouds and fog to
the coastal areas tonight into Tuesday morning. This is in spite
of the surface pressure gradient trending stronger offshore during
the next 24 hours as the upper level trough moves east and a sfc
high moves into the Great Basin. The developing offshore flow will
likely not be strong enough to push the marine layer clouds/fog
offshore tonight/Tue morning. Wind gusts below the passes and on
the coastal slopes will only peak at around 25-30 mph. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be warmer as a Rex Block develops over the west
coast, with an upper level low centered off the coast of central
Baja and an upper high centered over the Bay Area. This pattern
will provide easterly flow aloft over SoCal, enhancing the
offshore flow on Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday
will likely be the warmest days with high temps 15-20 degrees
above normal for the coastal areas and valleys and around 10-15
degrees above normal in the mountains and deserts. The national
Blend of Models indicates a 25-45 percent chance of 90+ degrees on
Wed for portions of inland OC. This drops to about 15 percent on
Thu.

Temperatures begin to trend lower on Thu as the upper high shifts
east in response to a low pressure trough approaching from the
West. This trough will merge with the low to the south as it moves
southeast over the region. The evolution of these systems remains
very uncertain due to the spread among model solutions. Some
previous solutions were indicating very small chances for
precipitation Fri-Sat. Current solutions are mostly dry but the
possibility of light precip on those days can`t be eliminated. We
can say with reasonable confidence that Fri-Sat will be cooler
with increasing marine layer clouds as onshore flow returns.

A transient ridge will likely bring fair weather and a minor
warmup on Sunday before a more significant low pressure trough
moves in on Monday. This has the potential to bring precip to
SoCal, mainly from the mtns westward. A majority of ensemble
members across model platform indicate chances for precip on
Monday. The NBM indicates about a 45 percent chance of measurable
precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
021800...Coastal areas...VFR this afternoon, then low clouds based
400-700 ft MSL return after 02z Tue to the coast. VIS reductions
expected 1-5SM for coastal sites after 03z, then VIS reductions 1/4-
2SM with FG for coastal mesas around I-15 and I-405 beginning 06-
08z, with a 40-50% chance of below 1/2SM at KCRQ. Low clouds and FG
scatter out 15-17z Tue.


Otherwise, VFR conditions with SCT high clouds through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy fog with local visibility under 1 nautical mile tonight into
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are
expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Surf of 3 to 6 feet with sets to 8 feet peaks today and tonight, and
gradually diminishes Tuesday. A higher than average tide Tuesday
morning will combine with this high surf to produce minor tidal
overflow and flooding, along with strong rip currents and hazardous
swimming conditions, most likely in San Diego County, through
Tuesday morning. Check the Coastal Hazard Message for details on
these multiple hazards.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for San Diego
     County Coastal Areas.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for San Diego County
     Coastal Areas.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PST this evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink