Commerce, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS66 KLOX 051058
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
258 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/1156 PM.

Light Santa Ana Winds will occur each morning today and Friday.
Freezing conditions will occur across some interior areas this
morning. A significant warming trend will begin this weekend with
temperatures well above normal through next Thursday, peaking next
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...05/221 AM.

Three days of benign very nice weather on tap for Srn CA. An upper
high will nose in from the west. Hgts will rise a couple dam each
day and will end up near 584 dam by Sunday. There will be weak
offshore flow through the period, but only in the 2 to 4 mb range.

Skies will be sunny through the period. There will be light, sub
advisory winds each morning.

Low temperatures in wind sheltered locations will be below normal
each morning due to the dry airmass and clear skies which will
allow for very efficient radiational cooling. Freeze warning and
frost advisories are in effect for this morning, but a few degrees
of airmass warming will likely bring low up just enough to
preclude frost/freeze products.

Max temps will cool across the most of the csts and vlys today
and Saturday due to the weaker offshore flow. The Central Coast
will be the exception due to a decent offshore push this morning. The
inland areas will warm each day as the airmass warms. All areas
will warm Sunday as the hgts peak and there is a slight bump up
in the offshore flow. Sunday`s max temps will mostly be in the mid
60s to mid 70s across the csts and vlys (mostly 3 to 6 degrees
above normal).

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/255 AM.

The warm up will continue through next week. While all mdls are
warm the EC and its ensembles continue to advertise the most heat.
The east Pac ridge will continue to dominate the Srn CA weather.
There is decent agreement that on Monday and Tuesday the hgts
will be near 586 dam. After that the GFS weakens the high to about
580 dam while the EC keeps it near 586 dam on Wed and then 589 dam
on Thu. For perspective, the average Dec hgt is 571 dam.

At the sfc offshore flow will continue. The offshore flow will be
weak most of the time but will rise to moderate levels on Tuesday
when there will be gustier winds in the morning. But with no upper
level or thermal support its doubtful that there will be advisory
level winds on any of the days.

The ensembles do point to the EC`s solution and the max temps have
been adjusted upwards through the period. Even with this boost
there is a 30 percent chc that they are still too low. Right now
the forecast call for 2 to 4 degrees of warming Mon and 1 to 3
degrees on Tuesday. The csts will likely cool a degree or two Wed
as Tuesday`s offshore flow relaxes and allows for an earlier
seabreeze. Away from the csts max temps will rise another 1 to 2
degrees each day. Monday`s max temps will be 8 to 12 degrees above
normal and by Thursday most max temps will be 12 to 18 degrees
over normal (about 8 degrees at the coasts). Thursday`s highs will
be in the lower to mid 80s in the vlys and the 70s across the
csts.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1034Z.

Around 10Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast, except moderate
confidence in the current forecast for KPRB. VFR conditions are
expected through the period, except for a 50 percent chance of
VLIFR to LIFR conditions between 12Z and 17Z. There is a low
chance of moderate wind shear through 16Z at Los Angeles County
valley and Ventura County coastal terminals.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through at least 10Z Saturday,
then there is a 20 percent chance of LIFR conditions. Any
easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots, but there is a 20
percent chance of easterly winds between 7 and 10 knots through
15Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...05/234 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Less
confidence in the forecast for the outer waters versus
the nearshore and inner waters.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the
southern California bight, there is a high-to-likely (40 to 60
percent) chance of Small SCA level winds developing as late as this
afternoon and lingering through the remainder of the period into
Tuesday. The highest chances of SCA conditions will be for the
northern and western portions (outside the buoy observations)
beyond 30 NM offshore.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, winds and seas
should remain below SCA levels through the period, but there is a
low-to-moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance of SCA level winds
this morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Frost Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST this morning for zone
      357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox