Blairsden, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

925
FXUS65 KREV 122002
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
102 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and afternoon thunderstorms expected today with gusty
  outflow winds and possible new fire starts from lightning.

* Monsoonal moisture increases Monday, bringing wetter storms and
  possible flash flooding concerns through Tuesday.

* Storm chances continue for the eastern Sierra and Mineral County
  Wednesday through Friday, though some uncertainty remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds and showers are streaming north today, courtesy of a
monsoonal surge of moisture. This initial push of moisture has
brought some light showers to northeastern California, but many of
the showers have only amounted to elevated virga. As the column
of air moistens under the influence of inbound PWAT values ranging
0.6 to 0.8 inches, more precipitation may actually make it to the
surface. This condition has already limited morning fire behavior
on fires across Nevada and Lassen counties in NE CA. Should
shower activity increase today to thunderstorms, we could see some
gusty outflows that may impact fire operations, as well as new
starts from any dry thunderstorms.

The thick upper to mid-level clouds over much of the area have
already begun to limit the incoming solar influence that would be
needed to increase instability over the northern extent of our
region. If we see some clearing this afternoon, light showers may
take on a more convective nature. In fact, recent CAMs are modeling
a bit of clearing along the southern portion of the Sierra, seen and
verified by current satellite and observations. Therefore, a
round of showers looks to approach the southern Sierra later
today, and may contain anything from light rain to virga, with
embedded lightning potential increasing to 5-10% after 1 PM today.
This encroaching plume of moisture makes it`s way into southern
Mono County for the afternoon hours, then heads toward Mineral
County for the late afternoon into evening time frame. This might
be the area and time frame to watch for dry thunderstorms with
fast storm motions of 40-45 mph, and little to no measurable
rainfall.

As this surge of moisture continues a northward trek, the PWATs are
predicted to get as high as 1.00 inch as we start the new week. This
will modify our main threat from the dry thunderstorm regime to a
possible flooding theme instead. For contrast, the QPF shown by the
NBM today offers no measurable precipitation as mentioned for today,
but the overnight hours into Monday we start to see a few hundredths
creeping up the Sierra. By Monday afternoon, we could see wetting
rains, with some showers capable of producing isolated showers that
may be heavy at times. Shower chances increase from the early day 20-
40% to around 30-70% with the highest chances over Mono County and
into Mineral County into the evening and overnight into Tuesday.

Tuesday`s forecast looks a bit more spicy as convection and the
necessary instability that accompanies it moves into place over
western Nevada and far northeastern California. Shower chances
will be around 20-40% early Tuesday afternoon from Susanville to
the Tahoe Basin and 50-70% from US-50 to southern Mono County.
Then, the progression of the ridging pattern over the central US
nudges just a bit to the east, allowing the monsoonal moisture to
also follow suit. Showers will work to keep temperatures across
the area in check, and around seasonal average.

A trough from the north enters the conversation for Wednesday, which
will put us between the southwest flow of the monsoonal push and the
southwest flow ahead of the incoming trough. As such, temperatures
will climb once again as we go from midweek into the week`s end.
Once the upper low is drawn back into the flow north of our area, we
will again be seeing high pressure over the Four Corners region.
This invites the monsoonal flow back into the picture for the
weekend, when we once again will contend with showers and storms.
Check back daily for the latest in our forecast, as details should
become clearer for midweek and beyond.

HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Light showers around the region today with thunderstorms
  possible this afternoon, especially for KMMH/KBAN. Gusty winds
  are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, up
  to 35 kts possible. Otherwise, winds will be south to southwest
  10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts possible.

* Shower and storm chances increase Monday and Tuesday with
  greater potential for lightning as a 30% chance for
  KTRK/KTVL/KBAN/KMMH/KCXP/KMEV/KRNO arrives after 18z. Gusty
  outflow winds, heavier rain showers, small hail and terrain
  obscuration are all concerns for both days. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* A monsoonal moisture surge today through Tuesday will usher
  shower and thunderstorm chances back into the Eastern Sierra and
  western Nevada. First round of showers today will be on the dry
  side with the potential for starts outside of wetter rain
  cores, especially south of US-50. QPF has been light so far
  today, with most areas receiving less than 0.1". Surface RHs
  today will struggle to exceed 40% across western NV, with virga
  showers overhead. RHs may get a little higher in NE CA this
  afternoon, but QPF will remain low.

* Storms trend wetter on Monday and Tuesday, increasing the
  potential for wetting rainfall. However, storm motions will
  remain on the faster side, so new lightning ignitions are
  possible away from main rain cores. Gusty and erratic outflow
  winds up to 45 mph will also accompany thunderstorms. Moreover,
  an increasingly unstable environment on Monday and Tuesday will
  be more favorable for deeper vertical plume growth/more active
  plume behavior on any new/existing fires that become intense.

HRICH/Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$