Bakersfield, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

545
FXUS66 KHNX 171909
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1209 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Strong wind gusts and low relative humidities in the lower
elevations of central California brings a Major Risk of Fire
Danger through the remainder of the weekend.

2. Red Flag Warning in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and
West Side Hills of the Coastal Range through Monday evening. Red
Flag Warning in effect for the Mojave Desert through Sunday
evening.

3. Strong wind gusts continuing in the Mojave Desert through
Sunday, with a High Wind Warning for the Mojave Slopes and Wind
Advisory for the remaining desert areas.

4. Lake Wind Advisory in effect for the Kern River Valley, Lake
Isabella, and San Luis Reservoir.

5. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams, as
water are still running cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is pushing through the western US this
morning, with the center of the trough currently located over
northern Nevada and central Idaho. Over the next few hours, the
trough will move through Nevada, with the axis and a localized
jet stream, moving over central California. Northwest flow
assoicated with the jet streak will continue to bring cool, but
dry conditions to the local area along with stronger wind gusts
in lower elevations. The latter is due to the orientation of
the prevailing flow channeling through the San Joaquin Valley as
a result of the local terrain. This afternoon, there is a 60 to
70 percent probability for gusts to exceed 30 mph, especially
in the western valley areas; low RH values between 15 and 20
percent across the same area will result in a major risk for
fire danger in this area. In addition, strong wind gusts remain
expected for the Kern County Desert (70 to 80 percent chance to
exceed 50 mph) with the incoming jet streak, which will move
over dry desert conditions, and continuing fire danger in this
area.

For Monday, the leading edge of the trough will push eastward,
but will become more longwave, with the trailing edge remaining
relatively stationary over the western US. The result of this
will be a continuation of dry air from the northwest, but with a
with a slight warming trend due to the introduction of more
zonal flow over central California. MinRH values at 15 to 20
percent on Sunday will quickly fall below 15 percent for much of
the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Mountains, and portions
of the Sierra Nevada; minRH values in the Mojave Desert will
fall below 10 percent. Lingering low level winds over the San
Joaquin Valley will continue the threat for grass fires to
develop and spread on Monday.

As the week progresses, upper level winds are expected to
diminish as a slight high pressure ridge begins to build in.
With upper level flow continuing from the north to northwest,
regardless of the decrease in winds, dew point temperatures will
remain mostly stable while air temperatures gradually increase.
This will hold relative humidities at or below 15 percent across
the lower elevations of central California for much of the week.
Localized stronger wind gusts in the southern Sierra and
Tehachapi Range will bring additional fire danger to these
areas, especially where fuels have been curing the most over
the past weeks.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusts 25-30
kts will develop at the TAF sites again Sunday morning through
the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low minRH values today combined with wind gusts approaching 30
to 35 mph in the San Joaquin Valley continues the threat for
fast-moving grass fires; a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for this area until 8 PM Monday as minRH values under 15 percent
are anticipated tomorrow. Red Flag Warnings also remain in
effect for the Mojave Desert until 11 PM this evening due to
minRH values at or less than 15 percent and strong wind gusts
above 50 mph this afternoon. As stated above, drier air is
expected to move into central California this week with minRH
values at lower elevations expected less 15 percent for multiple
days in a row.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ298-299.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337-339.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ579-580.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ300.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332.
&&

$$

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