Malvern, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

745
FXUS64 KLZK 161750
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1150 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

-Normal to above normal temperatures throughout the next seven
 days

-Isolated to scattered showers mainly Wednesday, ahead of more
 widespread shower and thunderstorm activity primarily on Thursday

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mostly clear skies early this morning will give way to cloudy
skies later today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough across the
Great Plains. This trough will keep general southerly flow across
the region over the next several days as surface high pressure
centers east of the state.

Weak moisture advection is likely to still spark a few showers
across what looks like southern Arkansas tonight into Wednesday,
although chances for any one location to see these showers remains
somewhat low (10-30%). As the weak shortwave ejects eastward
going into Thursday, a more energetic shortwave amplifying from
the stronger polar jet centered across the US/Canada border will
bring better moisture return ahead of a cold front spreading
across the Plains into the Natural State late Wednesday and into
Thursday. Most of the state should see measurable precipitation,
although deep moisture remains limited (i.e. PWAT`s around 1
inch), thus probabilities of 0.50" (1.00") for this mid to late
week event is generally 30-50% (10-20%), with the best chances for
higher amounts favoring eastern Arkansas.

Dry conditions will commence once again late in the week and
persist into this weekend as surface high pressure builds across
the southeast. Temperatures will be coldest on Friday post-cold
front, as highs hover around normal levels (mid-40 to low 50s).
Temperatures will then warm quickly with highs in the 60s on
Saturday and persisting into early next week. There are even low
to moderate chances (30-50%) for highs even reaching the 70s,
favoring central to southern Arkansas Sunday through early next
week.

Guidance has quite a bit of spread in regards to another wave
late into the weekend and into early next week that could bring
some increasing precipitation chances, but even if that comes to
fruition, chances will still remain low (generally 10-30%) due to
continued lack of deep moisture with any frontal band that would
move across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR TAFs are expected through much of the night before a quick
drop to MVFR around 09z. SHRA will also arrive across Srn AR at
this time with ISO to SCT coverage. Continued moisture advection
will allow for MVFR CIGs to remain across the region and drop into
IFR, if not into LIFR, shortly after 12z tmw. Rain will move into
Nrn MS and Wrn TN through mid-morning with impactful CIGs
remaining through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     38  58  48  61 /  10  10  50  90
Camden AR         41  55  50  65 /  60  30  50  80
Harrison AR       38  61  49  58 /   0   0  30  60
Hot Springs AR    41  56  49  63 /  40  20  70  70
Little Rock   AR  40  55  49  64 /  30  20  50  90
Monticello AR     42  57  51  66 /  50  40  30  90
Mount Ida AR      42  58  51  64 /  30  20  70  60
Mountain Home AR  37  60  49  58 /   0   0  30  60
Newport AR        40  57  51  61 /  20  10  50  90
Pine Bluff AR     40  56  51  65 /  50  30  40  90
Russellville AR   40  60  51  64 /  10  10  60  70
Searcy AR         38  57  48  63 /  30  20  50  90
Stuttgart AR      41  55  51  63 /  40  30  30  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...99