Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS64 KSHV 061820
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

 - Dry weather will continue, with morning lows in the 50s and
   60s, and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Incremental
   warming will continue through the end of the week.

 - Rainfall chances return to the eastern ArkLaTex this weekend as
   a tropical disturbance approaches the Gulf coast. Flash
   Flooding cannot be ruled out across south central Arkansas and
   north central Louisiana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Aside from a few scattered clouds over central Louisiana extending
into the southeastern ArkLaTex, sunny skies abound once again this
afternoon. A few of these cumulus are attaining some vertical
definition, such that a few very isolated showers cannot be
completely ruled out. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions will
prevail this afternoon and through the next several days, with the
northwest flow of any substance away north of the Ozarks, ridging
over the Rockies and Desert Southwest, and a trough attempting to
define itself as it sweeps over the ArkLaTex through mid to late
this week, maybe bringing a dry boundary with it but no impacts of
any significance.

The remainder of this week will see an incremental warming trend
continue, with more of our sites south and east taking aim at the
lower 90s tomorrow afternoon and following suit through Friday. Lows
overnight will continue to range from the middle 50s north to middle
60s south again tomorrow and Thursday, trending wholly into the 60s
by Friday and largely holding steady through the end of this
extended forecast period, while highs are moderated slightly by the
rainfall potential this weekend and associated cloud cover.

As previously advertised, guidance brings showers back to our
eastern zones this weekend as the tropical disturbance taking shape
over the southwestern Gulf in the next few days approaches the U.S.
Gulf Coast. If the system`s sustained winds reach Tropical Storm
strength (39+ mph) it will be given the name "Isaias." There still
remains uncertainty regarding the storm`s intensity and speed,
variations in which may result in significant changes to impacts. As
of this writing, rainfall may arrive near daybreak saturday for our
southeasternmost zones, spreading north into the afternoon and
keeping generally east of the I-49 corridor and receding to the east
of our area by Sunday. Dry conditions will continue thereafter aside
from a few afternoon showers across our southernmost zones Monday
afternoon. The highest confidence in rain this weekend is across our
easternmost zones, including El Dorado, Monroe and Jena. The WPC is
including these areas in a broad Slight Risk for flash flooding
potential as the tropical system moves inland this weekend.
Potentially impacted zones are advised to monitor forecast
developments in the days ahead.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Expecting quiet and VFR conditions for the WFO SHV aerodrome over
the next 24 hours. There is some scattered cu with a bit of
vertical development in Central LA and an extremely stray shower
cannot be ruled out this afternoon there, but potential for any
impact at TAF sites is far too low to include in the 18Z package.
Bases of cu are in the 5 to 6 kft range. Expect these sorts of
cloud impacts to be around at least LFK, SHV, and MLU through
tomorrow, but sites elsewhere (e.g., GGG/TYR/TXK/ELD) should be
see clear skies through this time. Some very patchy and shallow
mist with vsbys > 1 mi cannot be ruled out late tonight and early
tomorrow, but again, the potential for impact is too low to
include at any TAF sites. Otherwise, expect daytime N to NE
surface winds in the 6 to 12 mph range through tomorrow, with
winds tending more toward light and variable tonight. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  65  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  55  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  58  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  91  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  87  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...50