Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

481
FXUS64 KTSA 070531
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

 - Southerly winds return with a warming trend through the week.

 - Multiple opportunities for showers and storms Friday into early
   next week. Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat
   exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Wave over the Plains along with an area of low pressure over the
Desert Southwest Monday night will both aid in streaming high clouds
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday into
Wednesday. The southern area of low pressure is expected to move
eastward and broaden out over Texas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Any
associated precip should remain south of the CWA where the deeper
moisture plume is expected to reside.

Surface high pressure begins to shift eastward Tuesday, with the mid
level ridge exiting the Southern Plains Tuesday night. In response,
southerly low level flow returns to the CWA Tuesday/Tuesday night,
which will help bring a slow warming trend with high temperatures
above normal this week. High temperatures in the 70s
Tuesday/Wednesday, and lows Tuesday night in the 40s/50s are
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Once the southern wave departs the region Wednesday evening, an
increase in southerly low level flow will help increase moisture
advection into the CWA for Thursday through the weekend. At the same
time, a shortwave trof is progged to move through the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region and push a frontal boundary
southward through the central Plains toward the CWA. Breezy/gusty
southerly winds and warmer conditions south of this boundary will
allow high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s/80s late week.

The frontal boundary is progged to be stretched across Kansas Friday
while another area of low pressure moves onto the southern West
Coast Saturday. A piece of vorticity breaks off and lifts into the
region Saturday ahead of the main wave forecast to reach the Plains
Sunday/Monday. The combination of these features interacting with
moisture advection into the region will develop shower and
thunderstorm chances returning Friday and remaining over the CWA
through Monday before the low pressure exits the region. Light
precip could start as early as Thursday/Thursday night with some
model/ensemble solutions, though the greater potential remains
Friday through Monday. The higher potential for precip Friday is
expected to be over the northern half of the CWA, closer to the
boundary and the ejecting vorticity lobe into the region.
Precipitation chances are currently higher over the western half of
the CWA Saturday and then expands over the CWA Sunday into Monday.

Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat exist
Friday through Monday with the return of both surface/elevated
instability and precipitable water values up near the 90-99th
percent-tile. Details with QPF and severe timing/locations remain
uncertain currently, though confidence in the signal for an
unsettled weather pattern during the second half of the forecast
period is increasing. Stay tuned as details are refined through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  50  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   74  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  50  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   71  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   74  50  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  50  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05