Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS64 KTSA 131139
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday.

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at
   least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Organized cluster of storms continues to move across Osage/Pawnee
counties at present and will remain capable of strong downburst
winds despite being largely elevated. Additional storms continue
to develop across eastern Kansas and dive south as well. The
overall evolution of storms overnight remains uncertain, but the
cluster moving into NE OK appears aided by rear inflow jet and
thus expect continued organization and eastward progression with
a few damaging gusts possible across northeast OK, potentially
moving into part of northwest AR before weakening.

Some showers may linger into the early part of Sunday, but the
overall expectation remains for decreasing clod cover and hot
temperatues expanding farther north across eastern OK. Much of
the area likely to see HI values at or above 105, and the Heat
Advisory will be kept in place. Some data suggests at least a few
spots will flirt with 110 for a HI.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Additional heat headlines are likely in the coming days as summer
rages on. Strengthening low level flow early next week will also
raise fire weather concerns to some degree in areas that miss out
on the current rainfall. Configuration of headlines may vary some,
but bottom line is another multiple day stretch of heat is coming.
Thunderstorm chances may flirt with northern areas during the
week but most areas remain dry.

Medium range models continue to show an eventual breakdown of the
upper ridge and the passage of a cold front by about next
weekend, though exactly when this happens remains in question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain ongoing across
portions of NE OK and NW AR. Terminal impacts should be minimal
through the morning with KBVO standing the best chance to see some
impact from nearby thunder over the next couple hours. Some patchy
MVFR and IFR CIGs have also been noted over NE OK this morning,
but should be relatively short lived. Otherwise, winds will
generally become southerly through the day with VFR conditions
prevailing as skies clear through the afternoon. A low chance for
isolated thunderstorms exists again this afternoon, mainly across
NW AR sites...but chances remain too low to mention in the TAFs at
this point.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  77 100  78 /  10   0   0   0
FSM  103  76 102  77 /  20   0  10   0
MLC  103  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   99  70 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   99  72  99  73 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   97  72  98  75 /  30  10  10   0
MKO  100  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   97  73  98  76 /  20   0   0   0
F10  101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW  100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-
     176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04