Arkadelphia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

616
FXUS64 KLZK 191700
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

-High temperatures Friday through Sunday will likely be 20 to 25+
 degrees above average with multiple records tied or broken across
 the state this weekend.

-A dry cold front which is expected to move from north to south
 across Arkansas on Sunday Night into Monday will briefly bring
 temperatures to near normal values early next week.

-Drought conditions will persist through the period with dry
 conditions expected through at least the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Satellite early this morning shows northwest flow aloft continuing
over the state as a highly amplitude ridge continues to have a firm
gripe over the western US with a long wave trough over the eastern
coast. At the surface, light and variable winds overnight will
turn to the south/southwest later this morning as high pressure
over the southern US is expect to shift toward the Carolinas later
today. Temperatures this afternoon will average 10 to 15+ above
normal for afternoon highs across the state. There will likely
that multiple locations will tie or break records for afternoon
high temperatures across the state.

A look at both deterministic and ensemble model members show the
amplified ridge over the western US will stay in place through at
least the weekend before flatting out. Both the deterministic GFS
and ECMWF on Friday show H850 temperatures on Friday 16-18C range,
16-18C via the GFS vs ECMWF which shows 18-20C on Saturday,and
18-20C per the GFS vs 20-22C by the ECMWF on Sunday. The H850
temperatures are within the upper bound per SPC sounding climatology
page for each day. NBM probabilities of reaching 85 degrees or
above at 60-75% over the Arkansas river valley on Friday, then
expanding to eastward across a large part of the state with NBM
probabilities over 70% or higher over all areas except parts of
east and northeast Arkansas where percentages are 20% or less.

By Sunday, the NBM is over 80% for all areas except for parts of
northeast Arkansas, in which percentages will generally be in the
30-40% range. A look at NBM probabilities for temperatures 90
degrees or above for Saturday across the Arkansas river valley in
the 40-60% range with the Little Rock metro at 11% on Saturday. On
Sunday, NBM probabilities expand to parts of northern Arkansas
except for the highest elevations with percentages 40-70% in
northern Arkansas and 45-75% range across the Arkansas river
valley. The NBM probability to reach 90 per this cycle on Sunday
sits at 25% Nonetheless, this weekend multiple records across the
state will likely be broken and in some cases by 5 degrees or more
as temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 20-25 degree above
normal for afternoon highs for this time of the year.

By Sunday night, a cold front will dive southeast out of central
plains into the state. The front is expected to push across the
state Sunday night into Monday morning bringing a shot of cooler and
drier air to the state. High pressure will dive south of the central
plains by Monday, then push into the Ohio valley by Tuesday afternoon.
Southerly winds on Monday will veer to the southwest by Tuesday.
Temperatures behind the front will still hover closer to normal
before moderate to well above normal again by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Light S-SW
winds are expected. Mid clouds are moving through the area now,
but will push out of Arkansas in the next few hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light S/SW winds
throughout each day with a few afternoon breezes around 15kts or
less. A few mid and high level clouds will stream southeast within
northwest flow aloft, otherwise, SKC expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         54  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       56  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    54  84  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  55  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     56  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      54  85  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  53  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        55  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     55  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   54  87  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         52  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      55  82  59  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...75