Arkadelphia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS64 KLZK 190536
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, bringing
  an attendant threat for isolated severe storms, mainly capable
  of damaging winds and some hail.

- Through the weekend and into next week, an unsettled pattern is
  forecast, with daily chances for rain and thunderstorms
  expected over much of the state.

- Widespread rainfall totals of two to four inches will be
  possible across the western half of Arkansas through mid-week
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Mosaic reflectivity early Thurs AM depicted a broken line of storms
moving ESEwrd acrs Srn MO. Objective sfc analysis indicated a cdfrnt
oriented SWwrd fm a Great Lakes sfc low, slowly approaching the
Ozark Plateau. Thru the day today, this frnt wl slowly move Swrd
into the FA, w/ Nrly winds ushering in drier air.

Aftn SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and NWrly effective shear of 20
to 30 kts wl support some organized storm potential acrs the Nrn
half of AR Thurs aftn to evng. Pt fcst soundings indicate some drier
air aloft, w/ modest low-level theta-E differences, and 3CAPE values
near 80-100 J/kg, alluding to mainly a damaging wind threat w/ any
pulsing convective activity.

Into Fri, the aforementioned frnt is progged to continue slowly
moving Swrd, stalling over Srn AR by Fri evng, continuing to serve
as the focus for PoPs, and an attendant, but low severe threat thru
the day. Behind the frnt, cooler and less humid condns wl be seen by
the Nrn two-thirds of the state.

Thru the weekend, mean H500 NWrly flow wl persist acrs the Midwest
region, w/ broad sfc high pressure lingering over the Mid-South
vcty. A Wrly component to H500 flow wl promote lee sfc cyclonic flow
acrs the Srn Plains, w/ Srly sfc flow quickly resuming over the
state by Sat. As sfc cyclonic flow becomes more organized and
maneuvers Ewrd, a broad warm sector is progged to extend over much
of the Srn Plains and into the Ozark Plateau. There is still a
moderate degree of uncertainty thru this PD, though deterministic
guidance continues to suggest a few shortwave troughs maneuvering
thru mean NWrly flow, w/ mass fields indicating strong cold pool/MCS
activity following the periphery of the aforementioned wrm frnt into
Nrn AR Sat and Sun nights. Mon and thru mid-week, H500 NWrly flow wl
continue, w/ daily scattered PoP and thunderstorm covg favored acrs
the FA.

In addition to severe threats thru the weekend, higher QPF values
remain possible thru the latter half of the PD, w/ NBM/WPC guidance
continuing to advertise a corridor of two to four inches of
rainfall acrs the Wrn half of the FA. Temps thru the PD wl stay near
normal values, w/ intermittent bouts of cooler than normal temps
behind passing cdfrnts, and limited concerns for hazardous heat
condns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR condns were noted over much of the FA w/ some high cloud covg
lingering over Cntrl AR fm earlier Thurs night convection. Thru
the PD, a stalled frnt over Cntrl AR wl continue to slowly move
Swrd, and serve as a focus for additional precip development thru
the day Fri, mainly impacting Cntrl to Srn terminals. Additional
storms may move into SWrn AR later Thurs aftn, and move Ewrd
quickly along the aforementioned frnt, but confidence remains low
at the moment. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs wl settle over portions of
SWrn to Cntrl AR by 12Z Fri mrng, and later improve to VFR levels
by 18Z at most locations. Winds wl stay NErly thru the day behind
the frnt.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  67  85  71 /  30  10  50  40
Camden AR         85  71  86  73 /  70  40  80  40
Harrison AR       82  66  82  70 /  30  10  50  20
Hot Springs AR    84  70  85  73 /  40  30  70  30
Little Rock   AR  84  70  85  73 /  50  20  70  50
Monticello AR     86  72  86  73 /  70  40  80  40
Mount Ida AR      83  70  84  73 /  40  20  70  20
Mountain Home AR  83  65  82  70 /  30  10  40  30
Newport AR        86  68  86  72 /  30  10  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     84  71  85  73 /  50  30  70  50
Russellville AR   84  70  85  73 /  40  10  60  50
Searcy AR         85  68  85  72 /  50  10  60  40
Stuttgart AR      84  71  85  74 /  50  20  70  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72