South Lakes, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXAK68 PAFC 020112
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

A weak low is bringing periods of rain for Prince William Sound as
it continues to track to the north through the overnight hours.
Some of these showers could make it to Anchorage and the Mat-su
Valleys, but most of the moisture will be downsloped from the
Chugach Range.

On Monday, a front from a Bering low crosses through the Alaska
Peninsula, sending Gale Force sustained winds and rain north into
the southern/central Gulf and much of Kodiak Island. Easterly
winds will also start to pick up over the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains as a northeast to southwest pressure gradient tightens
up ahead of the approaching front farther south.

Forecast confidence remains low for Tuesday. Deterministic models
are trending the front to track faster through the Gulf, bringing
the swath of gale force winds and rain to the northern Gulf in
the morning, keeping south of Prince William Sound. Small-craft winds
are expected to reach Prince William Sound. The earlier arrival
of these strong winds is a notable change to the previous
forecast. Cross-barier flow will likely be strong enough to keep
most of the Mat-Su, Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula dry due
to downslope drying through Tuesday evening. Stay tuned for
updates on this next stronger Gulf system as forecast confidence
for the progression of the front improves over the next couple
days.

Winds will drastically decrease on Wednesday as the front moves
onshore. An upper level trough will bring pieces of energy through
the Gulf, continuing precipitation as well as continued
downsloping for the same areas.

-SS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday afternoon)...

Current satellite imagery shows a 950 mb Kamchatka low about 300
miles west of Shemya, with its occluded front pushing past the
Central Bering. Along and behind this front there is an elongated
area of light- to- moderate precipitation, gale-force
southeasterly winds, and patchy fog. Expect strong gap winds
tonight through the eastern Aleutians, especially through Cold
Bay, gusting as high as 55 mph. Meanwhile, some weak rain/snow
showers continue across parts of the Southwest mainland, but are
expected to diminish temporarily tonight as a shortwave ridge
moves in ahead of the approaching front.

The parent low pushes along the western Aleutians through Monday,
with some storm-force winds on the southern end of the island
chain. Cold air wraps around the back side of the low, resulting
in a slight chance (10-30%) for some isolated lightning strikes in
the region. Moving east, a triple point low forms along the
occluded front and lifts into Bristol Bay, bringing gale-force
east- southeasterly winds to the AKPen and Southwest coastline.
Given the off-shore direction of these winds, coastal impacts
should be minimal. Temperatures gradually warm through the day
with the southeasterly flow aloft; thus precipitation should
remain mostly as rain for the lower elevations.

Gale-force winds will taper off across the Southwest by Tuesday
morning as the triple-point low pulls to the northwest and the
original front stalls out. However, some orographic showers will
linger given the strong moisture advection from the southeast.
Showers will likely become more widespread across the AKPen and
Bristol Bay on Wednesday as another shortwave trough lifts from
the Western Gulf and into the region. Looking west, and upper-
level low remains nearly stationary over the northern Bering, with
a multitude of shortwaves rounding the low through Wednesday.
Cold air continues to filter in from Siberia and Kamchatka and
into the western Bering. By Tuesday evening temperatures may be
cool enough for some snow flakes to mix into showers from Shemya
to Atka.

-CW

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Multiple strong storm systems will track from the North Pacific
across the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska. These will
bring periods of high winds, rough marine conditions and heavy
precipitation (rain at lower elevations, mountain snow at higher
elevations) focused on the southern coast and Southcentral Alaska.


Systems will affect the southern Bering Sea and Aleutians with
strong winds, elevated seas and precipitation, mainly rain, with
some mixed or snow possible farther west or at higher elevations,
as they track eastward from the north Pacific. They will then
intensify over the Gulf of Alaska, where the first system weakens
over the northern Gulf by Wednesday. A second system arrives
Thursday night and into Friday and a third develops by the
weekend, bringing repeated high winds and significant
perception. Southcentral Alaska will see lingering moderate to
heavy rain and mountain snow from the initial system into
Thursday, followed by a brief break and then additional rounds of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall and mountain snow, with
stronger winds more likely along the coast, including the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Slight to moderate weather
model differences towards the weekend keep the confidence
moderate on the exact timing and of the strongest winds and
precipitation accumulations.

-DD


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Northerly surface winds are expected throughout the TAF
period. Monday morning, winds aloft will turn to the southeast
around and will bring in the potential for low level wind shear.

VRF ceilings and visibilities are likely to prevail through
Monday. There will still be occasional shower activity around the
terminal through the evening which could lower ceilings to just
below 5,000 ft in a shower.

&&


$$