Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

489
FXAK67 PAJK 030036
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple weak fronts look to move over the panhandle through
  early next week, bringing increases in wind and precipitation
  chances, with breaks in between.

- A possible atmospheric river could move into the southern half
  of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in
  winds are possible, with a hydrologic outlook issued in
  response. Accumulating snow near Haines and Skagway highways are
  also a concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The next atmospheric river is upon us, with warm air
advection pushing in from the south, significant divergence aloft,
and moderate to heavy rainfall for much of the panhandle. This
warm air advection not only looks to assist in efficient rainfall
with snow levels 5000 to 7000 ft, but also is expected to bring in
very warm temperatures for much of the panhandle. Temperatures in
the southern panhandle could exceed 50 degrees on both Tuesday
and Wednesday, which for Ketchikan specifically, would rank it in
the top 5 for all time highs on those particular days.

For rainfall, there is good consistency on timing for onset of
heavy rain, between 6 PM and 9 PM in the southern panhandle, and
between 3 AM and 6 AM for the Icy Strait corridor. Looking to see
these heavy rates on Tuesday move northward as well into Haines,
Skagway, and the highways. With the very high snow levels for this
time of year, expecting precipitation type to largely stay as rain
throughout the event. The one exception is White Pass, which could
get some snow accumulation; however, with strong southerly flow
coinciding with heaviest rates, expecting wet bulbs to be above
freezing and much less accumulation to occur.

For rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning, sticking with the
2.5 to 4.0 inches, as run to run consistency seem to support these
numbers. Naturally, we will likely see higher amounts at
elevation; however, for those near sea level, there is only around
a 10% chance to exceed 4 inches.

.LONG TERM...For the long range forecast, SE AK continues to
remain under the eastern flank of a broad mid/upper level trough
for the foreseeable future. While the main areas of low pressure
will still be centered well to the west, this will nevertheless
set the stage for fronts and shortwaves to continue to progress
through the area.

The next wave of note will arrive on Wednesday. Fog which formed
late Tuesday night across parts of the area will fade away as a gale
force front moves up from the south. While this front will not be as
strong as the previous system, still anticipate windy conditions for
the southern panhandle, gales for the outer coast, small crafts for
the inner channels, and periods of moderate to heavy rain. In the
wake of this system showers and diminishing winds are expected on
Thursday, although some areas may break out and see the sun on
occasion. Shower coverage will likely diminish on Friday before
another front arrives from the South on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Tuesday afternoon / Southeast Alaska between
weather systems starting Monday afternoon.  The next incoming system
is lifting out of the north pacific to the eastern half of the gulf.
Rains to start Monday evening from a warm front feature over Prince
of Wales moving North the Yakuatat-Juneau line by midnight the rain
band on the cold front move to the panhandle Tuesday morning and
persist through the day.  Wind that could lead to low level wind
shear are approaching the coastal areas of Baranof Island Prince of
Wales and into the Southern Inner Channels.  The main core is off
shore but gusty winds will reach Gustavus, Juneau, Wrangell, and
Petersburg.


&&

.MARINE...

Inside Waters: Winds will increase in the southern panhandle
tonight to gale force by 3 AM tonight, with increasing winds
moving south to north. Expecting sustained gales to largely be
localized to the southern half of Clarence Strait, but possible to
see gale force gusts all the way up to Midway Island and Point
Couverden. Tuesday night is looking increasingly like the
southerly push will succeed in pushing into Lynn Canal, with fresh
to strong southerly breezes continuing through the night. Early
Wednesday morning, winds are expected to shift to the north, as
another front moves into the area.

Outside waters: Widespread gales to strong gales are expected to
ramp up in the following hours as the next frontal band moves over
the area. Expecting to see some barrier jet develop with around a
30% chance of sustained storm force winds near areas east of Cape
St. Elias. Otherwise, much more likely to see winds increase to
strong gales by late Tuesday morning before diminishing late
Tuesday afternoon as the energy moves inland. Seas, in turn, look
to rapidly increase to 25-30 ft, particularly in the NE gulf
coast, from the longer sustained strong winds over a large area of
fetch.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ323-328.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NM
HYDROLOGY...NC

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