Meadow Lakes, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

921
FXAK68 PAFC 021345
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Wednesday evening)...

The same pattern we`ve seen in place over the weekend is
continuing this morning as a steadily weakening upper trough
over the northern Gulf slowly lurches northeast towards the
northern Gulf Coast. Showers remain widespread near and ahead of
the trough axis, mainly near and just to the south of Prince
William Sound. Similar to what we saw over the weekend, most of
the shower activity lifting north is still struggling to get past
the coastal mountains. Farther north, a low stratus deck has
become socked in over the Copper Basin, with some areas of the
cloud deck lowering into fog at times.

Looking towards the rest of today and beyond, the system that will
soon become the main source of active weather will approach from
the southwest by about midday to the early afternoon. A sizable
Bering low will send a strong frontal boundary across the AKPen
today, shifting northeast into Kodiak Island and the western Gulf
by early this afternoon. The front will send a corridor of Gale
Force winds across much of the Gulf as it heads quickly northeast
through tonight. The progression of this front continues to look
even faster compared to indications from yesterday, and the timing
for the initial arrival of the front has been moved up once again
with this forecast package. Steady rain arriving along the front
will also move in a little quicker, potentially reaching Kodiak as
early as 9 AM this morning. Steady rain will spread north to the
coastline of Southcentral as easterly flow and moisture transport
ahead of the front pick up through tonight, mainly across the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound.

By Tuesday, the front over the Gulf will begin to stall out as
a new low begins to develop at the frontal triple point. Models
have come into better agreement for the development of the new
low, likely forming near the center of the Gulf by Tuesday
afternoon. The low will then move quickly northeast towards Kodiak
Island Tuesday night, helping to enhance the front near and
northeast of the low while also pulling it north closer to the
coast. A barrier jet will form along the front as it approaches
the coast, resulting in a corridor of Storm Force winds south of
the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Easterly winds and
rain will also intensify north of the front along the coast.
Meanwhile, strong cross-barrier flow will keep most areas in the
lee of the mountains dry, including most of the western Kenai
Peninsula up through the Mat-Su.

By early Wednesday, the low will pivot into the northern AKPen and
quickly begin to dissipate, while the front extending to the
northeast also rapidly moves into the coast and begins to shear
apart over the terrain of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains.
Multiple upper level impulses rotating north out of the Gulf in
addition to forcing along the decaying front could help pull
shower activity a bit farther inland through the day on Wednesday,
especially in and around the Cook Inlet region. The active marine
pattern looks set to continue into the latter half of the week,
with another strong low approaching the southern Gulf by late
Wednesday night.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Current satellite imagery this morning shows a strong low around
950 mb traveling eastward and currently situated just east of
Kiska. Its front has passed the Pribilof Islands and draped across
the eastern Bering and southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) as it is
on its way to coastal Southwest Alaska this morning. As the front
reaches Southwest, a period of snow is likely at the onset of
precipitation along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island
before precipitation changes to rain by late morning into this
afternoon.

A Point of uncertainty continues to exist in the forecast in
regards to the track of a tightly compacted triple point low. This
low is currently continuing to organize on the Pacific-side of
the southern AKPEN this morning and is expected to cross into the
eastern Bering Sea this afternoon. The scenarios continue to be
that a track closer to the coast will bring enhanced rain and
winds to the coast while a track farther west into the Bering will
bring less enhancement to winds and precipitation to the coast.
This forecast package favors a slightly more offshore and less
impactful track with this triple point low. Regardless of this
low`s track, expect gale-force southeasterly wind along the the
coast today before winds slowly diminish tonight into early
Tuesday morning.

Shifting gears back west, strong jet dynamics accompany the
parent low in the western and central Bering and especially on the
southern flank of the low. On the Pacific-side of the Aleutian
Chain, a corridor of storm-force winds are likely from Shemya to
south of Adak/Atka through this afternoon. Winds will continue to
remain gusty through early Tuesday afternoon despite diminishing
from peak winds by this afternoon. The other story with this low
center is that is continuing to wrap in cold air which is
promoting a more unstable airmass around it. The best jet dynamics
associated with this low, as stated above, are on its southern
flank. The Pacific-side of the Aleutian Chain will be the best
area to see a few marine lightning strikes today and tonight with
the left exit of a jet streak in the North Pacific being in that
area.

Behind that Bering low that will exit to the North Pacific on
Tuesday will be a renewed push of cold air that enters the western
and central Bering from Siberia and Kamchatka. Additional
shortwave energy will also continue to move across the Bering from
northwest to southeast. As such, rain may mix and even change
over to snow at times across Shemya Tuesday and Wednesday. The
story is the same for Adak/Atka as well Nikolski/Unalaska.
Meanwhile, Bristol Bay will remain showery through most of the
short-term period as additional shortwaves from the eastern Bering
move over the area. The cold air push across the Bering makes it
to the southern AKPEN by Wednesday and starts to nudge into
portions of the southwest coast by Thursday morning.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Multiple strong storm systems will track from the North Pacific
across the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska. These will
bring periods of high winds, rough marine conditions and heavy
precipitation (rain at lower elevations, mountain snow at higher
elevations) focused on the southern coast and Southcentral Alaska.


Systems will affect the southern Bering Sea and Aleutians with
strong winds, elevated seas and precipitation, mainly rain, with
some mixed or snow possible farther west or at higher elevations,
as they track eastward from the north Pacific. They will then
intensify over the Gulf of Alaska, where the first system weakens
over the northern Gulf by Wednesday. A second system arrives
Thursday night and into Friday and a third develops by the
weekend, bringing repeated high winds and significant
perception. Southcentral Alaska will see lingering moderate to
heavy rain and mountain snow from the initial system into
Thursday, followed by a brief break and then additional rounds of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall and mountain snow, with
stronger winds more likely along the coast, including the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Slight to moderate weather
model differences towards the weekend keep the confidence
moderate on the exact timing and of the strongest winds and
precipitation accumulations.

-DD


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibilities as well as northerly surface
winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected to prevail throughout the TAF
period. Winds aloft turn southeast and strengthen to around 25 kts
this evening, increasing the potential for low level wind shear
tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&


$$