Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXAK67 PAJK 201746
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
846 AM AKST Tue Jan 20 2026

.UPDATE.../to add the 18z aviation discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through most of
  the week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog,
  most likely in the morning hours.

- Active weather returns by late weekend, with rain for most of
  the panhandle. Accumulating snow possible for the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The main forecast challenge for the short term
continues to be the presence of fog across portions of central
and southern panhandle this morning. Drier, northerly outflow
across have dissipated most of the fog near Juneau and the Icy
Strait Corridor, with the Freezing Fog Advisory being cancelled
for these areas. As you head south, fog and low stratus remain,
but on a lesser scale then the previous morning. Dense Fog and
Freezing Fog Advisories continue for portions of the central and
southern panhandle. Fog/stratus is currently thickest across
Frederick Sound and into Kake and Petersburg. Outflow winds will
will slowly funnel in drier air into central/southern, with
fog/low stratus likely dissipating this afternoon. Patchy fog
could develop tonight, but again, on a lesser scale than this
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions with passing high clouds
expected through the short term with high pressure dominating.
Gusty winds again expected for Haines and especially Skagway as
the gradient strengthens. Have lowered temps this morning as
clearing has allowed for efficient radiational cooling. Also
lowered high temps slight across the south due to limited mixing.

.LONG TERM...Mid range pattern remains consistent; an amplified
ridge will remain in place over southeast, with the axis
stretching into southcentral AK. This feature will continue to
block large systems from making landfall over southeast, with a
cool arctic airmass dominating the Yukon and B.C. territories
driving outflow for the inner channels. Magnitude of outflow winds
looks to remain below gale force for the most part with the
exception of gale force gusts for localized areas like Taku Inlet
and perhaps Taiya. By the weekend, a prominent system in the far
southwest gulf will push some moisture into southeast bringing
light precipitation and increasing wave energy along the coast.

Though there is still lots of spread between models, overall
guidance suggests a small upper level disturbance moving into the
eastern gulf Saturday night. The resulting surface inflection
looks to send a front into the panhandle through Sunday, bringing
widespread precipitation back to the panhandle into Monday. This
system has the possibility of bringing gale force winds along the
outer coast, with strong gusts pushing up into the channels. The
pressure gradient in the northern panhandle will attempt to keep
strong northerly outflow winds through Lynn Canal as the low moves
inland. Temperatures will be the more uncertain part of the
extended forecast, as outflow during the week bringing cooler
temperatures southward will be combating the southerly onshore
flow associated with the low. CPC guidance suggests overall
warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but
due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal,
northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this
precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to
rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on
the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though
continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following
behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the
forecast for next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Wednesday/...A northerly outflow wind
pattern is in place, which is bringing breezy/gusty conditions
through the 24-hour TAF period for the northeastern Panhandle/Lynn
Canal region sites, including PAGY & PAHN. Winds elsewhere across
Southeast Alaska are on the lighter side as the the SFC pressure
gradient is much more relaxed. As far as CIGs and VISs are
concerned, VFR flight conditions are expected for most areas
through the period. The exception looks to be the PAPG area, which
will see LIFR category conditions from dense FG through this
morning, improving to VFR. Then, tonight, conditions for PAPG
look to deteriorate again for several hours. LLWS values continue
to be rather benign through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Lighter outflow winds continue across
most of the inner channels today, with the exception being Lynn
Canal and Taku Inlet, which could see moderate to strong breezes
through tonight as the gradient tightens. Pockets of dense fog
continue across portions of central/southern inner channels this
morning, but looks dissipate by this afternoon. The outflow
continues to build across the inner channels through the week with
speeds of strong breezes to near- gale force. One benefit of
outflow will help limit fog potential as we move through the week.
Mariners should continue to watch for fog development in
protected bays and inlets.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to
bring fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters.
Winds and seas looks to increase by late week and into the weekend
as a series of low pressure systems push north into the Gulf
waters. Outflow winds also look build through the week, with
fresh to strong breezes coming out of Cross Sound by Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ321-326-327.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ328-330.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP/ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS

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