Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXAK67 PAJK 230659
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1059 PM AKDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain return to the northern and central panhandle as
  a low lingers in the Gulf of Alaska, sending a series of weak
  fronts inland through mid-week.

- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle
  communities through at least Tuesday. Rain chances increase
  through Thursday as a stronger system moves out of the N
  Pacific towards Haida Gwaii.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday/...A low pressure system
centered just SE of Kodiak will gradually weaken and move NE,
bringing multiple rounds of precipitation into the panhandle
Monday evening through Tuesday morning. These weak fronts will
bring showers across the northern half of the panhandle, from
Sitka northward, with rainfall totals remaining largely below 0.5
inches in 24 hours. Localized higher rates and rainfall
accumulations are possible due to interactions with terrain as the
fronts push northward, with Juneau having potential to see up to
0.10 inch per hour rates at times tonight.

Shower chances will diminish from S to N into Tuesday, though
some potential will remain along the outer coastline from the
decaying low lingering in the western Gulf. This will be more of a
break however for most of the panhandle. A surface trough will
soon bring more precipitation back to the northern panhandle
overnight into Wednesday, though like the last system, will be a
weak wave of showers that will not bring much in terms of rainfall
totals.

Another system does begin to develop in the N Pacific midweek,
moving in just behind this weak disturbance Wednesday night as it
approaches Haida Gwaii, bringing in more widespread rain chances
across the coastline Wednesday night. For more information on this
next system, read the long term discussion below.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/...A stronger low will
develop in the north Pacific during the week, moving into the
eastern Gulf towards Haida Gwaii by Wednesday night. This system
will bring more widespread rainfall across the panhandle starting
with the southern panhandle and south/central outer coastline late
Wednesday night, before moving eastward through the day Thursday.
There is higher confidence on this system bringing rainfall the
southern panhandle up to Icy Strait Corridor, with less confidence
on extending into the far northern panhandle from Yakutat over to
Skagway and Haines. It will move onshore just around Haida Gwaii
into BC by Friday, but there is potential for a meso low connected
to this main system that may move in closer to the panhandle
rather than stay just southward. The strength and location of this
feature may result in rainfall pushing further northward into
Skagway and Haines. Overall the precipitation will be heaviest
across the southern coastline, with between 0.5 and 1.0 inches
expected from Sitka along the coast down to PoW and 1 to 1.5
inches expected for Ketchikan / Annette Island.

Behind the low pressure system Friday, on shore flow is expected
to develop with a ridge of high pressure. While on shore will keep
showers in the forecast, the overall rain chances will be lower
for the Alaska Panhandle.

As the ridge builds Saturday, some stronger winds are possible from
the eastern Gulf Coast toward Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance. In the
inner channels, winds look fairly benign, other than some sea breeze
formations Saturday, but that will depend on skies clearing which
seems unlikely at this time with showers around.

By early next week, another low pressure system looks to form in the
Gulf of Alaska and potentially increase shower chances. However,
there is model disagreement on this exact timing and placement of
the low pressure system early next week, so confidence is low in
this system.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...A weak front will continue to
push its way northeastward into the northern Panhandle through
tonight & into Tuesday morning while continuing to weaken. Light
rain showers over that area will weaken & taper off into the
morning hours. CIG & VIS conditions will improve from the current
MVFR/IFR range to the VFR category by late Tuesday morning. The
remainder of the Panhandle should stay in the VFR flight category
through the entire TAF-period. The only exception may turn out to
be PAKW late overnight as the marine layer may advance back into
that area before retreating during the mid-to-late morning hours.
SFC winds will remain rather benign for most places. Afternoon
sea breezes will likely occur on Tuesday. PAGY looks to become
breezy/gusty out of the south, once again, from late Tuesday
morning into the evening hours. LLWS values remain benign through
the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A swath of moderate to fresh
southeasterly breezes is moving northeastward into the
northeastern gulf coast this afternoon, bringing periods of
showers for the northern panhandle and gusty winds along the coast
overnight. Winds along the coast will diminish through Tuesday,
with the exception of Dixon Entrance seeing westerly fresh breezes
continue through the period. 5 to 6 ft wave heights will persist
along the coast as the swath of winds moves inland, diminishing
overnight to a more consistent 4 ft across the gulf. Southerly 3
ft swell at a period of around 14 seconds will decrease to 2 ft
through Tuesday. On Wednesday, gulf winds will begin to turn from
predominately southerly to northerly by Thursday as a more
organized low tracks across the N Pacific towards Haida Gwaii.

Inside (Inner Channels): Much of the inner channel winds are
still relatively benign today as a swath of moderate to fresh
breezes moves onshore in the northern panhandle. Many interior
communities have developed 8 to 12 knot sea breezes this morning,
though with a band of showers currently moving into the panhandle,
sea breezes in the northern panhandle have been slightly
dampened. The exception to this is Taiya inlet, where increased
southerly winds to near 20 kts will continue through Monday
evening. Overall, a decreasing trend is expected through Tuesday
as a low tracks towards the panhandle through the southern gulf
and continued shower potential limits sea breeze potential. 1 to 2
ft wave heights are prevailing through the channels, with channel
entrances seeing 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Snow melt and a string of above normal temperature days across the
Chilkat Valley have resulted in elevated stream flow in rivers
and streams across the area. While temperatures will cool somewhat
through the week, snow levels in excess of 5000 feet will
continue to support these elevated stream flows through the time
frame.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...Contino/Musall
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
HYDROLOGY...GFS

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