Chena Ridge, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

959
FXAK69 PAFG 122207
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and cool pattern persists in Western Alaska as a series of
fronts moves from southwest to northeast. The Central and Eastern
Interior will be becoming cooler than normal with areas of
showers but it will more dry than not through early this week.
Strong winds are expected in the Alaska Range and Brooks Range
from Monday to Wednesday with the strongest being in the Alaska
Range. The North Slope is remaining mild due to downsloping from
the Brooks Range, but will have areas of showers as fronts push
through from south to north. Overall, the pattern is cooler than
normal south of the Brooks Range and near normal on the North
Slope with areas of rain thanks to a longwave trough over Western
Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rain showers move through the Interior periodically, but
  there`ll be more dry than wet time. Highest shower chance is
  north/west of Fairbanks each afternoon. A stronger front may
  bring more widespread showers on Wednesday.

- An isolated storm in the Tanana Valley is possible on Monday
  but there is a greater chance on Wednesday.

- Breezy in the AK Range Passes through Monday. Strong gap winds
  likely from Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts up to 70 mph in
  Isabel Pass, and 60 mph in Windy Pass.

- Seasonably cool weather is expected through Tuesday with highs
  in the 60s and low 70s, warmest towards the AlCan Border.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Widespread rain around the Bering Strait today, increasing
  shower coverage from south to north in the Western Interior with
  periods of rain likely in the higher terrain through Monday.

- Monday evening/night dries out in most spots but widespread rain
  moves to the Kuskokwim/Middle Yukon Valley beginning Tuesday
  morning. Steady rain has the potential to spread north of the
  Yukon River Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Rainfall totals through Wednesday = 0.25" to 0.75" with higher
  terrain around 1.00".

- Expect temperatures in the 50s and low 60s through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light rain showers along the coast this morning, otherwise areas
  of stratus and fog begin to lift later this afternoon.

- More widespread rain arrives in the Brooks Range Monday morning,
  then lifts to the North Slope Monday afternoon with chinook flow
  likely thereafter.

- Southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph in the Brooks Range possible
  Monday afternoon and evening, then 20 to 30 mph on Tuesday.

- Temperatures remain mild in the Plains, up to 70 through Tuesday
  with 40s/50s along the coast and 50s/60s in the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A longwave trough remains over Western Alaska with southerly flow
over the Central Interior/North Slope and ridging over the
Eastern Interior and NW Canada. Several shortwave troughs will
pivot around the low allowing moisture to stream into Western
Alaska bringing periods of rain through at least the middle of the
week. The ridging will gradually be pushed farther east,
lessening its grip in the Interior allowing for cooler
temperatures to prevail this week. We will see rounds of gap winds
in the Alaska Range from Monday to Wednesday with the strongest
coming Tuesday into Wednesday. The main driving force will be a
slough of energy trying to push through the Alaska Range from the
south, with a low over the Seward Peninsula pulling it northward.
Right now, the strongest winds appear to be in Isabel Pass with
wind gusts up to 70 mph. Sticking with winds, the Brooks Range
will also see its fair share of wind on Monday as a front moves
overhead. Gusts up to 40 mph are likely Monday afternoon and
night, followed by weaker winds around 20 to 30 mph on Tuesday.
This will be enough to chinook the North Slope and keep it
mild/mostly dry after the front passes through Monday night.

Otherwise, all of the energy moving from south to north will
provide showers and periods of rain to much of Northern Alaska
with very little precipitation in the Southern Interior due to
chinook flow. The only caveat is with southwesterly flow Monday
afternoon which may bring a few showers and even a thunderstorm to
the southern Interior, particularly east of Fairbanks. Otherwise,
the next highest chance for rain and thunderstorms in the
Interior will be Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave trough moves
overhead. Otherwise, there will be plenty of dry time in between
the shower chances across the Interior early this week.

A wrap up of all of this is as follows... Expect cool and wet
weather over Western Alaska, especially the Western Interior early
this week. The Central and Eastern Interior will be cooler than it
has been but seasonable. Showers are possible in the Interior each
day, especially north and west of Fairbanks, but no day is
expected to be a washout. Gusty winds are likely in the Brooks
Range and Alaska Range early this week with the strongest likely
in the Alaska Range Passes, particularly Isabel Pass from Tuesday
to Wednesday. The North Slope will have a few showers this
afternoon and Monday afternoon but looks dry afterwards as chinook
flow wins out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday, southerly winds increase again across much of the region,
pushing up in the west first and spreading into the Interior over
the day. For folks in the eastern Brooks Range, Monday afternoon
continues to be quite breezy out of the south as well.

Guidance continues to bring widespread wetting rains into much of
the west; however, given the spotty showers of the last 24 hours,
thinking we see a more sporadic regime regarding wetting rains
especially north of higher terrain. Thunderstorms will occur, likely
over the White Mtns and eastern Brooks Range/eastern North Slope,
but it will not be a big lightning day.

Main areas to watch for RH is from the Tanana Flats to the Upper
Tanana, where leeside drying will take grip, with min RH coming
into play Tuesday. On Tuesday, focus shifts to gap winds screaming
out of AK Range passes; particularly near Delta. Min RH
Sunday/Monday will drive receptiveness of fuels, highlighting
potential Red Flag conditions. Continued coordination with our
Fire/Fuel partners at AFS is required as we monitor conditions
this evening and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through Sunday
Strong winds in the Alaska Range passes continue through about
midday Wednesday as troughing centered over the western half of the
state brings southerly flow over the Alaska Range. Models are in
agreement that troughing will remain over Western Alaska through
this time next week, but there is uncertainty in the strength and
extent of the troughing. Ensemble disagreement stems from how strong
the GFS and Euro ensembles anticipate a ridge building in Eastern
Siberia to be. The Euro ensembles favor a stronger ridge building,
which will close off the low and keep it sitting over Alaska through
next weekend. The ridge in Eastern Siberia is much weaker in the GFS
ensemble solution, which would allow a ridge building in Northwest
Canada to extend further west into the Eastern Interior. If the Euro
ensemble solution verifies, cooler than normal and showery
conditions will prevail in the Interior through next weekend. If the
GFS solution verifies, temperatures would warm up to near-normal and
chances for thunderstorms return in the Central and Eastern Interior
at the end of the week.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Special Weather Statement remains in place for the Southern
Seward Peninsula, Eastern Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast for
minor water level rises from Sunday to Tuesday.

Weak south to southwesterly wind will result in minor sea level
rises. Expect rises of 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line
with each high tide cycle from today through Tuesday. Winds will
be largely 10 to 20 mph through Monday, then weaken and shift
northerly on Tuesday.

The highest water levels, up to 3 feet above the high tide line,
are expected in Eastern Norton Sound while the Yukon Delta and
Nome Coast are expected to be around 1 to 2 feet.

Significant impacts are not expected but those with belongings on
the beach may want to bring them further away from the water as a
precaution.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807>811-850-855-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
&&

$$

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