Enterprise, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

742
FXUS62 KTAE 131401
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1001 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Morning coastal thunderstorms and afternoon inland storms will
  occur today generally within the Florida counties. Stronger
  storms will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
  heavy rainfall.

- Moderate heat-related impacts are expected each day through
  Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching the 98-106
  degree range each afternoon. There is a low chance of dangerous
  heat index values exceeding 107 degrees through Tuesday mainly
  over the Florida counties south of I10.

- Patchy morning fog is expected over inland areas this morning
  and Monday morning.

- Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night through
  Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The only change of note to today`s forecast were refining rain
chances, mainly over the waters to better represent the morning
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms offshore.

Convective coverage does not look great over land later this
afternoon despite the continued moist airmass in place (sat
derived PWs of 1.8-2.25"). The main reasons for low PoPs are a
300-mb ridge axis bisecting the Tri- State area and west to NW
winds from the surface to 700 mb. Nearby 12Z soundings highlight
these factors, in addition to the SPC mesoanalysis.

The best rain chances are closer the coast within the seabreeze
zone and where the more favored southwesterly flow exists.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Mid level trough across the Tennessee Valley continues moving east
and off the east coast this evening while an upper ridge over the
southern Plains drifts east into the southeast US over the next few
days. A drier airmass filters in beginning today from the northwest
as subsidence builds through the mid levels as the effects of the
ridge begin to move in. PWAT distribution today will generally be
above 2 inches across Florida decreasing to 1.8 inches in our
northern counties. Therefore, better rain chances will be south of I-
10 today closer to the seabreeze then as drier air reaches towards
the coast Monday, better rain chances will push offshore.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure strengthens down the spine of the
Appalachians south towards the Gulf coast. Winds clock around to the
east while continuing to bring in drier air. In fact, PWATs
Wednesday into Thursday morning will be around an inch or less,
which is the 10th percentile for this time of year. Needless to say,
rain chances will continue to reside offshore. Global models are in
good agreement that Thursday an upper low will reach the southeast
US coast moving southwestward, which will punt the mid level high
westward and relinquish the hold of strong subsidence over the area.
PWATs do increase late in the week towards 1.5-1.7 inches with
at least low to medium rain chances returning, generally within
the Florida Big Bend.

Highs today will reach the low 90s, with mid 90s common Monday and
Tuesday. Coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s, this leads to a low
to medium chance of dangerous heat index values exceeding 107
degrees today through Tuesday, mainly over the Florida counties.
Otherwise, moderate heat-related impacts are expected each day, with
heat index values generally reaching the 98-106 degree range each
afternoon. As the mid level ridge retreats and the upper low
approaches, highs will also retreat back down into the upper 80s to
low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Patchy low stratus has caused some periods of LIFR cigs at VLD and
DHN so far this morning, and it remains possible at these sites
plus TLH and VLD over the next couple hours. VFR conditions should
prevail thereafter. Isolated SHRA has developed near ECP, and this
will remain the case for a few hours. This afternoon, TSRA will be
confined to ECP and TLH where PROB30s remain this cycle. Rain
chances at the other terminals are too low for inclusion in this
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Winds will gradually shift from the southwest to west through
tonight then northwest Monday as high pressure will reside in the
central Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
morning then move east through the day with brief gusty winds
accompanying any stronger storms. Drier air filtering into the Gulf
waters will act to suppress greater coverage of convection into mid
week while strengthening high pressure to the northeast will clock
winds to northeasterly while ratcheting up winds and seas Tuesday
night through Thursday. Moderate winds Tuesday will become fresh
Tuesday night through Thursday. There is now a medium chance of
meeting or exceeding advisory level winds during this timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

High pressure will build into the southeast US today and Monday and
strengthen into mid week. Drier air associated with the high will
act to reduce rain chances much of the week. Today, however,
isolated to scattered storms will generally be focused around the
seabreeze in the Florida districts. High temperatures will be in the
low 90s today with mid to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices
will reach the low to mid 100s with a low chance of exceeding 107F
in coastal locations. Transport winds increase Tuesday leading to
pockets of high dispersions through wiregrass region south into the
Florida districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will generally be focused in
our Florida counties along and south of I10. Starting Monday,
generally dry conditions will take hold as dry air filters in on
northerly flow and high pressure builds over the area. Its not
until Thursday when the high pressure retreats westward that rain
chances come back in the picture. All this said, widespread
flooding or riverine flooding is not expected through the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  75  96  74 /  20   0   0   0
Panama City   90  77  94  76 /  30   0  10   0
Dothan        93  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        93  73  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      92  74  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    92  75  94  74 /  40  10  30   0
Apalachicola  88  77  91  77 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl