Birmingham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS64 KBMX 121111
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
611 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 610 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026

- Showers will continue across the far southeast counties of
  Central Alabama today.

- Rain-free conditions are anticipated for all of Central Alabama
  for Tuesday night and through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

In the lower levels, a large dome of high pressure is present
across Eastern Conus and back southwestward into Texas. Satellite
is indicating extensive cloud cover across Alabama, most of which
across Central Alabama is mid to upper level cloudiness, with
lower clouds and convection currently across the south closer to
the coast. Stratus is expected to develop and push into the I-
85 corridor Tuesday morning. Only meager convection chances will
be present for the rest of the night into Tuesday across the far
southeast counties as an upper shortwave swings eastward across
the Gulf Coast States. Conditions improve Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the upper wave. For Wednesday into Thursday, a
reinforcing boundary is expected to move through and keep the
lower humidity and dry conditions around for the end of the week.
Temperatures will be near normal for Thursday behind the
boundary, but are expected to warm as we head into the weekend as
the surface ridge slowly nudges eastward and a warm onshore flow
returns off of the gulf. For Saturday and on into Monday, highs
will begin to approach 90 degrees in a few spots. Humidity will
begin to rebound, but rain chances will continue to hold off
through Monday for now.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026

An upper-level disturbance will continue to move along the Gulf
Coast while a wedge of high pressure builds in from the east.
Easterly flow associated with the wedge will bring medium (60%)
chances of MVFR cigs at MGM/AUO by around 14z, lingering through
the day. Probabilities of MVFR cigs remain low (10-20%)
elsewhere. Rain should mainly stay south of MGM/AUO, with just a
low (10-20%) chance of -SHRA at those terminals, too low to
mention in the TAF.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There will be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms across
the far southeast counties of Central Alabama through the daytime
on Tuesday as an upper system moves across the Gulf Coast States
along with slowly decreasing cloud cover from the northwest.
Relative humidity values will remain up for Tuesday but decrease
by Wednesday afternoon with readings from the upper 30s northwest
to the lower 50 percent range southeast. Afternoon relative
humidity values Thursday will fall further behind a reinforcing
front, ranging from the upper 20 percent range to the 30s.
Humidities slowly begin to rebound Friday into the weekend as
surface ridging weakens and conditions warm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  54  82  52 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    76  55  80  53 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  78  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  60  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      78  58  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      72  59  81  60 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  77  59  82  58 /  20   0   0   0
Troy        75  58  82  58 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...32/JDavis