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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...Update...
No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing
westerly winds throughout the afternoon, with RH dropping into the
low teens to single digits. Please see the previous discussion for
additional details.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great
Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening
surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope
flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During
the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20
percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of
Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict
overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical
highlights have been maintained.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201923
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes are needed for the Day 2 forecast. Please see the
discussion below for additional information.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday),
with surface high pressure becoming established east of the
Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly
flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are
likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest
moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may
limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire
weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202237
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid to upper-level heights are expected over the central
and southern CONUS by early next week as a ridge migrates eastward
over Chihuahua Mexico and into the Southern Plains. This ridge will
continue to drift eastward through mid to late next week over the
Gulf, while troughing begins to impact the Pacific Northwest.
Persistent west to southwest mid-level flow across the Rockies will
aid in lee troughing throughout next week, and the potential for
some breezy winds at the surface across the Central and Southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Breezy westerly downslope winds are expected to impact the TX and OK
Panhandles and east-central NM by Monday/D3. Low critical
probabilities will remain in the forecast here, though there are
some indications of only locally critical RH being reached.
Decreasing surface wind speeds will accompany a decreasing surface
pressure gradient Tuesday/D4 across this same region. By
Wednesday/D5, however, increasing downslope flow will return as a
lee trough deepens. This stronger surface flow will likely be more
confined to the northwestern/western TX/OK Panhandles and far
northeastern NM, where low critical probabilities remain in place
from the previous forecast. In addition, fuels across this landscape
will become more receptive to fire start/spread with very little to
no sign of appreciable precipitation and above average
temperatures/low relative humidity anticipated through the extended
forecast.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
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