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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 101633

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

   Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

   The Elevated area was expanded slightly westward in southeastern AZ
   based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance.
   Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

   ..Weinman.. 06/10/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

   The leading edge of moderate mid-level flow will approach southern
   Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Amid deep mixing this should
   lead to some increased surface winds around 15 to 20 mph.
   Single-digit relative humidity is expected across most of this area
   during the afternoon. Given the later arrival of the stronger
   mid-level flow, do not expect elevated conditions to develop until
   late afternoon, but they could persist into the late evening before
   winds dissipate and relative humidity increases.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 101843

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z


   The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made
   based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. For details,
   see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 06/10/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

   40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will start to overspread the
   Southwest on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves out of southern
   Arizona into New Mexico. Deep mixing will bring some of this
   stronger flow to the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
   expected. Relative humidity of 8 to 15 percent is expected in a
   region with 90th percentile ERCs. Therefore, elevated conditions are
   expected late morning and continuing into the evening hours across
   much of southeast Arizona and southwest/western New Mexico. A
   smaller area of critical fire weather conditions are most likely
   across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where these
   strongest winds are expected and the greatest chance for large fire
   spread will exist.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 092052

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   A broad mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across parts
   of the Southwest on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Within the base of this
   feature, a belt of seasonably strong, deep-layer southwesterlies
   (50-60-kt 500-mb flow) will overspread portions of southwestern NM
   and southeastern AZ. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the
   strengthening flow aloft should yield 20+ mph sustained
   southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to
   lower-teens RH. Given increasingly dry fuels over this area,
   critical fire-weather conditions are expected on Days

   For Days 5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will
   persist over parts of southeastern AZ into west TX in the wake of
   the mid/upper-level low. Continued warm/dry conditions across these
   areas could favor elevated to near-critical conditions. However, the
   strongest surface winds are currently expected over parts of west
   TX, where ERCs are near or below average.

   ..Weinman.. 06/09/2023

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