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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210700

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
   TEXAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
   across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
   depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually
   traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually
   de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as
   it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an
   unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains,
   with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending
   from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering
   overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted
   in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. 

   Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the
   southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and
   attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying.
   Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree,
   but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the
   persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH
   values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in
   recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and
   RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast.
   20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on
   strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low
   deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline
   pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon
   as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most
   likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max
   with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster
   efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50
   mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to
   critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon
   across a large swath of the southern High Plains. 

   The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat
   continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did
   occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and
   parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near
   the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains
   confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and
   active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR
   imagery.

   ..Moore.. 02/21/2024
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210747

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the
   greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is
   currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the
   Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day
   Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward
   across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday
   afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and
   immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s
   likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will
   result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to
   Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across
   central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and
   ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire
   weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of
   the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th
   percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday).

   ..Moore.. 02/21/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the
   extended period D3/Thursday and potentially again D6/Sunday to
   D7/Monday. 

   Poor recovery is likely overnight D2/Wednesday - D3/Thursday across
   southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal
   northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative
   humidity again Thursday afternoon. A 40 percent delineation was
   added with this outlook to cover potential for increased fire spread
   potential from the southern Trans-Pecos into portions of
   south-central Texas. 

   An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with
   downstream troughing across the east D4/Friday through D6/Sunday.
   Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds
   generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the
   central and southern high Plains. Late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday an
   upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream and
   move eastward, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft
   overspreading the Rockies and potential for lee trough development.
   This pattern will favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope
   flow into the central/southern Plains. Low confidence in the
   evolution of the overall pattern precludes the need to include areas
   at this time. This threat will be monitored in the coming days.

   ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024
      




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