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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 291432

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0932 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

   Valid 291700Z - 301200Z


   No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated
   conditions appear possible across northern MN early this afternoon
   ahead of approaching cloud cover/showers, but the spatial/temporal
   duration of this threat remains too limited to warrant highlights.
   More widespread elevated conditions are probable across the southern
   Great Basin, but fuel status remains too limited for a more robust
   threat. See the previous discussion for additional details.

   ..Moore.. 05/29/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/

   An upper-level low will move along the central California coast
   today. Downstream of the trough, a shortwave ridge will intensify
   across the Southwest. A weak trough will move into the upper
   Midwest. At the surface, a diffuse surface trough will extend from
   the northern Plains southwestward into the southern High Plains. Dry
   conditions will remain across the Southwest. Winds, however, will be
   quite weak. For North Dakota and Minnesota, breezy and marginally
   dry conditions are probable. As compared to previous days, surface
   trajectories will emanate from areas of greater moisture and RH will
   likely stay above critical thresholds. Overall fire weather concerns
   across the CONUS will remain low.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 291656

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z


   No changes to the forecast are needed. Elevated conditions appear
   likely across parts of AZ into western NM Tuesday afternoon, but the
   overlap of dry/windy conditions and receptive fuels appears limited
   (mainly confined to western NM) based on latest ensemble guidance
   and fuel reports. Trends will be monitored and highlights may be
   introduced if confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated
   conditions across western NM improves. See the previous discussion
   for additional details.

   ..Moore.. 05/29/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/

   The upper-level trough across southern California will make progress
   into the Lower Colorado Valley and eventually the Four Corners on
   Tuesday. The surface response to this feature appears muted in
   guidance. A lee trough is forecast to develop in the southern High
   Plains, though this trough will be weak on account of the regional
   shortwave ridging aloft. Dry conditions will continue to persist in
   the Southwest, west of the Divide. The approach of the trough will
   promote some increase in surface winds. Without better-defined
   surface features, though, elevated conditions that do develop are
   likely to be localized. At present, parts of southern Arizona appear
   favored for these conditions.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 292014

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

   Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

   Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the
   Southwest through the extended period with a relatively higher fire
   weather threat expected on D3/Wednesday. Confidence remains high in
   the development of anomalously high-amplitude ridging across the
   central/northern CONUS through the work week that will result in dry
   conditions across parts of the Southwest and Great Lakes. While
   drying fuels are expected in both regions, weak surface winds over
   the Great Lakes will limit predictable fire weather concerns to
   AZ/NM through next weekend.

   ...D3/Wednesday - AZ/NM...
   Recent long-range guidance shows the eastward progression of the
   upper low off the CA coast into the Southwest over the next 48-72
   hours. Surface pressure falls within the left-exit region of the
   attendant upper jet will support strengthening winds across AZ and
   NM Wednesday afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably high
   confidence in 15+ mph winds with swaths of 20-25 mph winds probable
   across western to central NM. Antecedent dry conditions featuring RH
   in the single digits to low teens and dry fuels will support a fire
   weather threat as winds increase through the day. While areas of
   critical conditions are probable, spread in ensemble guidance casts
   some uncertainty into the coverage of such conditions.

   ..Moore.. 05/29/2023

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