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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181936
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
A Critical area was added along and just east of the Front Range in
Colorado from west of Colorado Springs extending north into
southeast Wyoming. Given the strong westerly, downslope winds
(sustained 15-30 mph and gusts of 50-80 mph) and RH below 15-20%,
and this being the third day in the past week with similar
conditions, the Critical area was added. Locally critical conditions
are likely to extend farther south along the eastern slopes of the
Colorado Rockies and into portions of southeast Colorado.
The Elevated area was expanded across the southern Plains with a mix
of dry downslope and return flow expected across the region. Locally
critical conditions are likely to develop, but guidance is
inconsistent on the location and magnitude of these conditions. If
forecast guidance continues to trend drier with stronger winds, a
critical area may be necessary across portions of eastern New
Mexico, west Texas, and into western Oklahoma.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and
another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the
Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and
shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another
strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on
Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and
Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could
occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New
Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind
event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence
in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will
generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible.
Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty.
Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated
to locally critical conditions are expected.
...Southern Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface
trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced
winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind
gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with
ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow
aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level
troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This
stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on
portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week.
Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for
the forecast period.
...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity...
West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in
elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas
into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may
extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary
layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range
forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in
the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no
precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with
the frontal passage.
...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains...
Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains
early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on
the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets
pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day
5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the
downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this
week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated
conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over
multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled
with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day
event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities
likely needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
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