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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161618

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   No changes to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift
   north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the
   low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet
   shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline
   will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the
   southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over
   the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather
   conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains.

   ..Southern Plains...
   Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low
   moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly
   flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern
   NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through
   part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the
   strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in
   duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally
   critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given
   widespread dry fuels.

   Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther
   east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the
   afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain
   possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward.
   However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface
   conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on
   precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be
   brief and localized.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and
   adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves
   into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal
   environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with
   gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather
   conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly
   unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will
   remain more localized.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160700

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly
   de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly
   fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern
   Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is
   expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface
   winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather
   conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High
   Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear
   possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the
   southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20
   mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire
   weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest
   of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds
   and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the
   longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon.

   ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152044

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late
   this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot
   through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the
   week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great
   Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern
   tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through
   the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to
   develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward
   along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter
   into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push
   into the northern Gulf during the weekend.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as
   the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds
   of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather
   concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the
   southwest of the surface low.

   ...Western/Central New Mexico...
   As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late
   this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected
   across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New
   Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central
   and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on
   Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model
   and fuel trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024
      




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