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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171603
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
IN CALIFORNIA...
The overall forecast remains on track today as the threat of
dangerous fire weather continues across the southern High Plains.
Slight adjustments were made to expand the northern extent of the
Extremely Critical area over far northeastern NM, far southeastern
CO, and southwestern KS. The latest forecast guidance indicates that
the placement of the dryline remains as anticipated with the
previous forecast issuance. That being said, the Extremely Critical
conditions are expected to impact areas just behind the dryline, so
the risk gradient was tightened across this area. Farther west, the
existing Elevated area was expanded, over portions of southern UT
and northern AZ, though fuels are comparatively less receptive. Even
so, fire weather risk amid west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph
combined with 10-20% minimum RHs over these regions is worth
highlighting. Additionally, expect winds to quickly turn northerly
behind a significant cold front sweeping across the country, which
will arrive over southern UT around sunset this evening.
..Stearns.. 05/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across the
southern High Plains today***
A deepening mid-level trough across the Rockies will support
appreciable surface low intensification across the central Plains
today. The combination of strong downslope flow from the Rockies, in
tandem with gradient westerly flow, will support very dry and windy
conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High
Plains. With above average fuel loading of very dry grasses and
holdovers from previous fires already present across the southern
High Plains, the very dry and windy conditions will promote a
volatile setup for rapid, dangerous wildfire spread potential.
...Southern High Plains...
A dryline will sharpen along the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma
border during the afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer expected
to mix up to at least 600 mb behind the dryline, from central New
Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas areas. While
gradient westerly surface flow will increase through the day,
downward mixing of stronger flow aloft in the post-dryline
environment will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH. These
conditions are likely across much of New Mexico to the immediate
dryline vicinity, where Critical highlights have been maintained.
Extremely Critical highlights have been adjusted to where guidance
consensus shows the longest term overlap of the aforementioned
winds/RH with loaded fuels exceeding the 95th percentile. While the
sustained surface winds may fall just shy of typical Extremely
Critical criteria, the combination of fuel loading and potential
pre-existing holdovers of earlier fire starts suggests that a
volatile landscape will be in place to support dangerous
wildfire-spread potential.
...California Central Valley Region...
Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the Central
Valley region as a mid-level jet streak overspreads California on
the backside of an upper trough. Downslope flow from the higher
terrain will support surface winds exceeding 25 mph in spots as RH
dips to the 15-20 percent range. Given dry fuels, Critical
highlights have been introduced to the Sacramento Valley region.
Broader Elevated highlights extend into the San Joaquin Valley,
where 15+ mph sustained northerly winds will overlap with 15-20
percent RH.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170703
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the
southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)***
A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS,
encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and
Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather
conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over
the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient
flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30
mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH,
necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas
Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights
have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is
strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph
amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the
95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at
a life threateningly rapid pace.
By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High
Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly
surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local
time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of
forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts.
..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162145
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist
across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a
highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin,
yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the
southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening
surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients,
resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary
layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late
week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the
Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central
US.
...Southern Plains/Southwest...
As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern
Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur
beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures.
Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated
across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining
areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon
relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly
below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather
conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical
conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing
multi-day threat.
On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong
mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will
contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical
wind/RH over portions of the Southwest.
..Stearns.. 05/16/2026
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