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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 281636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   No changes were needed to the ongoing forecast.

   Numerical guidance and current observations support the idea that
   wind speeds around 15 mph will be slightly more common than
   yesterday afternoon. This coupled with relative humidity falling
   into the single digits and the ongoing dry conditions will once
   again yield elevated-to-locally-critical fire weather conditions
   across southern New Mexico and far West Texas.

   ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/

   Elevated conditions were observed at several locations Monday
   afternoon across far southern NM/far West TX, and similar wind/RH
   conditions are expected again this afternoon as a weak mid-level
   disturbance overspreads the region. Relative humidity values should
   quickly fall into the single digits amid strong diurnal heating, and
   strengthening winds through the boundary layer will allow for
   slightly more widespread winds near 15 mph (gusting to 20-30 mph) as
   compared to Monday. Fuels remain very dry after several days of very
   dry conditions, which should support the fire weather concern.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 281950

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   No changes to ongoing forecast.

   Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across
   portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the
   backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less
   than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather
   conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico
   and far eastern Arizona.

   ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/

   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday
   across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level
   wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by
   Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the
   southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the
   upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region.
   Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the
   western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire
   weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected
   further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel
   analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM,
   which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 282051

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the
   next week ...

   A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week
   will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No
   synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow,
   leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface
   winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations
   in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern
   periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally
   elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day --
   especially given the single-digit relative humidity.

   By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a
   larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States.
   The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an
   increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will
   occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate
   widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this
   developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future
   updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of
   critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024

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