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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 041636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

   Valid 041700Z - 051200Z


   ...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
   Observed poor overnight humidity recoveries with above normal
   temperatures this afternoon will support dry surface conditions with
   RH values of 25-35% likely. Curing of fuels and the warm
   temperatures may allow for localized fire-weather conditions to
   evolve, especially across portions of Lower MI and northern OH/IN.
   However, weaker winds overlapping with the dry surface conditions
   will likely limit the areal extent of fire-weather concerns. While
   some localized concerns will be likely, confidence in the coverage
   of Elevated criteria fire-weather conditions remains low. Please see
   the prior discussion for more information.

   ..Lyons.. 06/04/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023/

   A mid-level low will meander over the Northeast today, while a
   relatively benign upper pattern persists across the remainder of the
   CONUS west of the Appalachians. Weak surface winds and/or moist
   low-level conditions will limit widespread significant
   wildfire-spread potential across most of the CONUS. Surface high
   pressure across the Great Lakes may encourage dry northeasterly
   surface flow during the afternoon. However, overall weak surface
   winds should keep wildfire-spread concerns localized. Similarly,
   wildfire-spread potential should also be localized across portions
   of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin and portions
   of the Pacific Northwest (to the lee of the Cascades). Seasonably
   dry low-level air will continue to prime fuels in these areas, but
   the lack of stronger surface winds suggests fire weather highlights
   are not needed this outlook.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 041918

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...Lower Colorado River Basin...
   The Elevated area was expanded westward where stronger surface winds
   and lower afternoon RH should overlap with pockets of better fuels
   in the lower deserts D2/Monday afternoon. Elevated meteorological
   conditions will also be possible across portions of northern AZ into
   the southern Great Basin, but area fuels remain mostly unfavorable
   for more widespread fire-weather concerns. See the previous
   discussion for more information.

   ..Lyons.. 06/04/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023/

   An upper trough will persist across the Northeast while a second
   mid-level trough impinges on the Southwest States tomorrow/Monday.
   Surface high pressure will continue across the Great Lakes area,
   fostering dry northeasterly flow amid curing fuels (given the lack
   of recent or forecast appreciable rainfall). However, the lack of
   stronger surface wind speeds suggests that wildfire-spread potential
   should remain localized. Elevated highlights may be introduced in
   future outlooks pending stronger surface winds via guidance
   consensus. Across the lower Colorado River Basin, 15+ mph sustained
   southerly winds amid 15 percent RH are likely by afternoon peak
   heating, driven by a mixing boundary layer and the approach of the
   upper trough. Elevated highlights have been added where the
   aforementioned favorable surface winds/RH will overlap with dry
   fuels supporting wildfire spread. Like Day 1, dry conditions will
   also exist across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific
   Northwest (to the lee of the Cascades), where fuels continue to
   cure. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field precludes
   fire weather highlights.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 042149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   In the mid levels, high pressure will remain in place over much of
   the center of the CONUS through the first half of the extended
   forecast period. Either side of the ridge, weak troughing will
   linger over the Desert Southwest, while a broad upper low slowly
   weakens over the Northeast. The limited overlap of strong flow aloft
   and dry surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. This
   generally stagnant upper-air pattern will remain in place through
   much of next week before the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. Late
   next weekend and into week 2, more robust troughing and stronger
   flow aloft may emerge over the Southwest, potentially supporting
   greater fire-weather concerns late in the forecast period.

   ...Southwest and southern Great Basin...
   As the aforementioned upper low continues to linger over the
   Southwest, slight enhancement of the mid-level flow will likely
   support a few hours of dry and breezy conditions D3/Tues into
   D4/Wed. Ware temperatures and little moisture will support a few
   hours of elevated fire-weather potential, mainly across portions of
   southern AZ and southwestern NM, where fuels are the driest. 

   By midweek, the upper low and flow aloft will quickly weaken as the
   central US ridge strengthens. With weaker winds and poor overlap of
   dry and windy conditions with receptive fuels, fire-weather concerns
   will likely decrease through the end of the work week. Fire-weather
   conditions may reemerge late in the weekend into week 2 as stronger
   mid-level flow redevelops ahead of a stronger southwestern US
   trough. High pressure will shift eastward allowing the stronger flow
   to spread eastward into D8/Sun. Model guidance remains uncertain on
   the magnitude and timing of the stronger flow aloft along with the
   receptiveness of area fuels given recent wetting rainfall. While
   probabilities are too low for any areas at this time, fire-weather
   concerns will likely increase given the presence of stronger winds
   and seasonably dry conditions over the Southwest and southern Great

   As high pressure continues to intensify over the central CONUS
   through early next week, warm and dry surface conditions are
   expected over much of the Midwest and OH Valley. Localized
   fire-weather concerns are possible through much of next week on the
   periphery of the stronger upper-level flow over the northeastern US.
   However, confidence in sustained 15+ mph surface winds is low,
   suggesting fire-weather concerns may remain more localized despite
   drying fuels.

   ..Lyons.. 06/04/2023

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