U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101633
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
The Elevated area was expanded slightly westward in southeastern AZ
based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Weinman.. 06/10/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/
...Synopsis...
The leading edge of moderate mid-level flow will approach southern
Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Amid deep mixing this should
lead to some increased surface winds around 15 to 20 mph.
Single-digit relative humidity is expected across most of this area
during the afternoon. Given the later arrival of the stronger
mid-level flow, do not expect elevated conditions to develop until
late afternoon, but they could persist into the late evening before
winds dissipate and relative humidity increases.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100736
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will start to overspread the
Southwest on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves out of southern
Arizona into New Mexico. Deep mixing will bring some of this
stronger flow to the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
expected. Relative humidity of 8 to 15 percent is expected in a
region with 90th percentile ERCs. Therefore, elevated conditions are
expected late morning and continuing into the evening hours across
much of southeast Arizona and southwest/western New Mexico. A
smaller area of critical fire weather conditions are most likely
across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where these
strongest winds are expected and the greatest chance for large fire
spread will exist.
..Bentley.. 06/10/2023
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092052
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
A broad mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across parts
of the Southwest on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Within the base of this
feature, a belt of seasonably strong, deep-layer southwesterlies
(50-60-kt 500-mb flow) will overspread portions of southwestern NM
and southeastern AZ. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the
strengthening flow aloft should yield 20+ mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to
lower-teens RH. Given increasingly dry fuels over this area,
critical fire-weather conditions are expected on Days
3-4/Sunday-Monday.
For Days 5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will
persist over parts of southeastern AZ into west TX in the wake of
the mid/upper-level low. Continued warm/dry conditions across these
areas could favor elevated to near-critical conditions. However, the
strongest surface winds are currently expected over parts of west
TX, where ERCs are near or below average.
..Weinman.. 06/09/2023
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