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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181621

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad
   low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is
   expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to
   remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the
   surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold
   front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures,
   higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the
   post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far
   northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to
   remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated
   fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear
   unlikely over much of the CONUS today.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 181819 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182041

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level
   flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest
   upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states
   during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next
   week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the
   West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the
   northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to
   occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between
   cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire
   weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry
   weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels
   continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in
   surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by
   mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could
   occur.

   ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024

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