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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 271654

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1054 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   No changes to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Wendt.. 01/27/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/

   A longwave upper-level pattern associated with a broad cyclone over
   the Hudson Bay will dominate the CONUS. A few distinct areas of the
   country could experience elevated or near-elevated fire-weather
   conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by broad mild
   conditions and flow.

   To the east, a subtle shortwave trough rotating southeastward
   through the broader cyclonic flow from the Pacific Northwest towards
   eastern CO. Flow will become more zonal leading to lee surface
   cyclogenesis in eastern CO. This cyclone will deepen slightly as it
   translates eastward during the second half of the period.
   Strengthening southerly flow will develop across the western OK/TX
   Panhandles and vicinity, but atmospheric and fuel moisture remain
   below elevated thresholds after recent precipitation.

   ...southern CA/AZ...
   Northeasterly flow persists in southern CA and southwest AZ.
   Localized downsloping gusts and drier conditions are possible, but
   ground and fuel moisture levels remain high. This will temper the
   overall fire threat in this region.

   ...FL Peninsula...
   Surface high pressure expected to form along the northern Gulf Coast
   throughout the day on Friday, leading to large-scale descent in the
   southeast US and FL. Dry, northerly flow down the FL peninsula could
   lead to minimum RH values around 30-35% amidst winds around 15-20
   kts. HREF guidance suggests that sustained winds may peak prior to
   the realization of minimum RH values, but enough spatiotemporal
   overlap exists to warrant an Elevated area.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 270722

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   The general weather pattern continues to be dominated by broad
   cyclonic flow and generally mild conditions. Within this flow, a
   trough axis in the western US will slowly pivot from around the Four
   Corners region through the Midwest. An attendant weak surface low
   will track northeastward through the Great Lakes as a cold front
   plunges southward through the Central Plains. Return flow to the
   south of the front will yield more humid conditions across the
   Arklatex region. The relatively moist airmasses on both sides of the
   front and modest surface flow will yield below-elevated fire-weather
   conditions across the CONUS east of the Rockies, with the exception
   of portions of west TX.

   ...west TX...
   Strengthening southwesterly flow (around 15-20 kts) is anticipated
   on Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos region. Associated
   boundary-layer mixing is expected to yield minimum RH values around
   10-15% amidst diurnally warming temperatures. ERCs appear rather
   low, but the dearth of precipitation in this region has led to
   10-1000-hr fuel moisture around 10% or lower. The Elevated area
   represents the most likely region where these criteria will overlap
   during the afternoon on Saturday.

   ..Flournoy/Lyons.. 01/27/2023

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 262047

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal in the extended,
   owing to largely unreceptive fuels and cooling temperatures across
   much of the CONUS. On D3 Saturday, a shortwave will rotate through
   the Western US within the longwave pattern with strengthening
   surface lee troughing across Colorado. This regime will bring
   increased southwesterly flow across portions of the Southern and
   Central Plains with warm and dry downslope flow allowing for
   relative humidity reductions across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.
   Localized Elevated to near Critical conditions may be possible for
   Big Bend, which has received less precipitation over the last 7
   days. Even with less precipitation, periods of cooler temperatures
   and light winds have helped keep fuels within this region marginal.
   As such, no potential regions of Elevated or Critical conditions
   have been included with this outlook.

   ..Thornton.. 01/26/2023

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