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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 281644

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z


   No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning
   remains valid.

   ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/

   An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the
   Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath
   the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of
   northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold
   front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder
   air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds
   expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather
   concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be
   across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels
   are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined
   with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated
   fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may
   also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS
   Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 282053

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move
   through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less
   amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some
   remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire
   weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and
   perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS
   will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models
   suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is
   currently low.

   ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains...
   A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this
   Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for
   parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals
   will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop.
   This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of
   fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but
   they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of
   precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire
   weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation
   mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on
   Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity
   where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds
   will exist.

   ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024

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