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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 050650

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   The backside of a mid-level trough will support widespread
   northwesterly flow aloft to overspread the Northeast while a second
   upper trough impinges on the Desert Southwest today. Over southern
   Arizona into southwest New Mexico, modest flow aloft overspreading a
   dry boundary layer will encourage 15 mph sustained southwesterly
   surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting Elevated highlights.
   Across the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast, dry northerly
   flow will prevail during the afternoon hours. While wind speeds may
   be too low to warrant fire weather highlights, the dry air
   overspreading fuels that are relatively devoid of recent rainfall
   may promote localized wildfire-spread concerns.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/05/2023

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 050652

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   The upper pattern for tomorrow/Tuesday will be quite similar to Day
   1, with mid-level troughs meandering over the Southwest and
   Northeast. The trough over the Southwest will support 15 mph
   sustained southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent
   RH for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, warranting Elevated
   highlights for parts of southern Arizona into southwest New Mexico.
   Dry northerly surface flow will occur yet again over the Ohio Valley
   into the Northeast. Still, forecast surface wind speeds appear too
   low to address with fire weather highlights this outlook, with
   wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/05/2023

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 042149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   In the mid levels, high pressure will remain in place over much of
   the center of the CONUS through the first half of the extended
   forecast period. Either side of the ridge, weak troughing will
   linger over the Desert Southwest, while a broad upper low slowly
   weakens over the Northeast. The limited overlap of strong flow aloft
   and dry surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. This
   generally stagnant upper-air pattern will remain in place through
   much of next week before the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. Late
   next weekend and into week 2, more robust troughing and stronger
   flow aloft may emerge over the Southwest, potentially supporting
   greater fire-weather concerns late in the forecast period.

   ...Southwest and southern Great Basin...
   As the aforementioned upper low continues to linger over the
   Southwest, slight enhancement of the mid-level flow will likely
   support a few hours of dry and breezy conditions D3/Tues into
   D4/Wed. Ware temperatures and little moisture will support a few
   hours of elevated fire-weather potential, mainly across portions of
   southern AZ and southwestern NM, where fuels are the driest. 

   By midweek, the upper low and flow aloft will quickly weaken as the
   central US ridge strengthens. With weaker winds and poor overlap of
   dry and windy conditions with receptive fuels, fire-weather concerns
   will likely decrease through the end of the work week. Fire-weather
   conditions may reemerge late in the weekend into week 2 as stronger
   mid-level flow redevelops ahead of a stronger southwestern US
   trough. High pressure will shift eastward allowing the stronger flow
   to spread eastward into D8/Sun. Model guidance remains uncertain on
   the magnitude and timing of the stronger flow aloft along with the
   receptiveness of area fuels given recent wetting rainfall. While
   probabilities are too low for any areas at this time, fire-weather
   concerns will likely increase given the presence of stronger winds
   and seasonably dry conditions over the Southwest and southern Great

   As high pressure continues to intensify over the central CONUS
   through early next week, warm and dry surface conditions are
   expected over much of the Midwest and OH Valley. Localized
   fire-weather concerns are possible through much of next week on the
   periphery of the stronger upper-level flow over the northeastern US.
   However, confidence in sustained 15+ mph surface winds is low,
   suggesting fire-weather concerns may remain more localized despite
   drying fuels.

   ..Lyons.. 06/04/2023

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