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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 221624

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

   Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of
   elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of
   the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also
   possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the
   prior discussion.

   ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/

   A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the
   Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong
   deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air
   mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient,
   coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft,
   will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained
   west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30
   percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for
   this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by
   overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where
   higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the
   region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the
   strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these

   Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong
   south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern
   Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and
   related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated
   conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to
   fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS).

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 221827

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/

   Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the
   northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE
   and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during
   the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a
   result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are
   possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop
   across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough.
   While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds
   and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of
   large-fire spread at this time.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 222044

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across
   the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By
   Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach
   the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the
   central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge
   eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and
   windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through
   the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and
   associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline
   surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry
   and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical
   probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where
   Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are
   most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist
   across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is
   currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical

   ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024

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