U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171612
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 04/17/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
...Synopsis...
Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more
zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some
stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern
Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster
low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High
Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected
along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min
RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While
winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a
few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels
dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171858
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the current forecast.
..Wendt.. 04/17/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
...Synopsis...
Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by
D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift
east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in
a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should
keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to
this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here,
the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting
at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday
afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across
the CONUS.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172040
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
Given recent and expected precipitation across much of the CONUS
through the extended forecast period, fire weather concerns should
remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern
Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. At present, fuels
are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain rather light.
Toward mid to late next week, models are in reasonable agreement
that a broad trough will be in the West. Some potential for an
increase in fire weather concerns will exist in parts of
central/western New Mexico where fuels may become dry enough to
support fire spread. This increase will coincide with increasing
winds as the trough moves eastward. Confidence in critical fire
weather occurring is too low for highlights.
..Wendt.. 04/17/2024
|
|