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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 131549

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   Valid 131700Z - 141200Z


   Critical fire weather appears probable along the western fringe of
   greater surface moisture across eastern Kansas. Here, RH of near to
   just below 20% is likely along with low-level pressure gradients
   remaining strong enough into the afternoon to support around 20 mph
   winds with higher gusts.

   ..Wendt.. 04/13/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/

   Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad
   swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains
   this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be
   focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where
   the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be

   ...Southern High Plains to northern KS...
   05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover
   with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into
   far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very
   dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air
   mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as
   southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough.
   Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely
   coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire
   weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern
   High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the
   past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel
   receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports.
   Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent,
   which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated
   risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and
   dry/windy conditions should occur.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley...
   Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in
   response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return
   until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should
   result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized
   elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of
   IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently
   limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 131831

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   No changes to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Wendt.. 04/13/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/

   Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad
   swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of
   elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low
   currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over
   the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late
   Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of
   the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level
   winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across
   much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most
   fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response
   is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but
   corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with
   receptive fuels. 

   ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin...
   Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for
   pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent
   areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent
   signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into
   the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the
   single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely
   attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope
   warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest
   west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region
   should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be
   monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher
   confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 122023

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   A potent upper-level low will continue to move eastward out of the
   Great Basin into the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
   A deep lee cyclone is expected to form Monday afternoon along the
   CO/KS border. The shortwave trough will lift into the Midwest/Great
   Lakes by midweek with the surface low following a similar track.
   Fire weather concerns are expected to focus within the southern High
   Plains during the extended period.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Critical fire weather potential will increase as the trough begins
   to the eject into the region on Monday. Strong mid-level winds will
   overlap with a deepening surface cyclone to the north to produce
   areas of 20-30 mph winds along with RH that could fall to near 10%
   behind the dryline. Some areas have observed rainfall in the past
   few days which has helped reduce fuel receptiveness. Critical
   probabilities have been kept lower in those areas.

   As the surface low departs, strong westerly winds will remain across
   the region on Tuesday. As winds will be on a gradual decrease into
   the afternoon, potential for critical fire weather should remain
   lower than on Monday. The eastern/northern extent of potential fire
   weather concerns will be determined by where and how much
   precipitation occurs Monday afternoon/evening.

   With the upper-level pattern beginning to become rapidly less
   predictable by Wednesday, confidence in potential critical fire
   weather is quite low through the remainder of the extended period.
   There is a low probability that elevated fire weather continues into
   Wednesday across parts of the region. Trends in model guidance will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024

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