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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 161651

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z



   An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern
   Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California.
   RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25%
   expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts
   in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH
   recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the
   threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the
   previous discussion for further details.

   ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/

   A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly
   flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in
   this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm
   and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are
   critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for
   dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further
   supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative
   humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds
   15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far
   southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with
   this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated
   fire weather conditions will be possible across much of
   central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less
   confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. 

   Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada
   in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative
   humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds
   10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 160655

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


   A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on
   Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of
   the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. 

   Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of
   western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15
   percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this
   region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical
   delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire
   weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into
   southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico
   and southern Colorado. 

   Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong
   northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough
   overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally
   around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin
   Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are
   sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns.

   ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 152149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the
   primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming
   week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the
   northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface
   response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern
   CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has
   been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far
   southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is
   maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in
   the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending
   on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary
   jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is
   expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California
   Central Valley.

   On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the
   northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry,
   breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central
   New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may
   occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is
   too low to highlight specific areas at this time.

   ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024

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