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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 201612

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z


   Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today.
   Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected
   across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this
   afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens
   within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief
   critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area
   for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel
   states within this region are near average, preventing the need for
   an Elevated area.

   ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/

   A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico
   and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to
   around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered
   thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures
   and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may
   pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large
   temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be
   rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of
   measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover
   through the afternoon/evening.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 201812

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


   No changes are required for the forecast Friday. Wet thunderstorm
   chances will extend even further to the northwest tomorrow across
   portions of UT and WY. Although dry thunderstorms can't be
   completely ruled out over portions of far eastern ID and
   northeastern NV, chances appear too low over relatively average fuel
   states to warrant an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area at this time.

   ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/

   Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High
   pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest,
   keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow.
   Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across
   much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture
   continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally
   0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 202115

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0415 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   At least low chances of wetting rains are expected to continue into
   early this weekend across portions of the Southwest and southern
   Rockies within a moisture plume associated with the remnants of
   Alberto. Further west and north across the Great Basin and the rest
   of the Desert Southwest, hot and dry conditions will be present
   under a mid to upper-level ridge D3/Saturday.

   The pattern will begin to shift by D4/Sunday, as a Pacific mid to
   upper-level shortwave trough and jet max in its base move onshore
   near northern WA. An associated dry, cold front will traverse WA and
   OR Sunday. Both a tightening surface pressure gradient and momentum
   transfer from aloft within subsidence behind the trough axis will
   lead to breezy, downslope flow developing across the Cascades and
   into the Columbia Basin. Fuel states are expected to deteriorate
   within the aforementioned regions. Therefore, at least low critical
   probabilities remain in the forecast. In addition, if model trends
   continue to suggest slightly stronger mid-level flow over WA, a
   small area of 70 percent critical probabilities may be introduced in
   subsequent forecasts within the lower fuel moisture content of the
   southwestern Columbia Basin of WA. Ahead of the cold front across
   the Upper Snake River Plain, warm, dry, and breezy conditions are
   anticipated within a well-mixed air mass. Fuels across this region
   are less receptive, but any ignitions may have the opportunity to
   spread quickly, as sustained speeds at or above 20 mph persist for
   several hours there in conjunction with single-digits RH.
   Furthermore, modest flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient
   over southern ID behind the cold front D5/Monday will continue to
   support low critical probabilities within the Upper Snake River

   Confidence in the large-scale pattern decreases slightly D6-D8,
   although hot and dry, fuel-curing conditions appear likely over the
   Southwest and most of the Great Basin under the influence of upper
   ridging. Critical probabilities could return to the extended periods
   mid to late next week, as another north Pacific mid to upper-level
   low moves onshore.

   ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024

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