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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 281500

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
   made to reflect trends in recent guidance. Surface observation
   through the Red River Valley of the north show RH already falling
   into the 20-30% range with strengthening winds. Recent guidance
   continues to show a general cool/moist bias, so forecast
   modifications were made based on the drier/windier solutions.
   Localized elevated conditions are possible across parts of southeast
   AZ into southwest NM, but weak synoptic winds will limit this
   potential to areas that see terrain-augmented winds.

   ..Moore.. 05/28/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/

   While losing amplitude, a shortwave trough will lift northeast into
   the northern Plains and upper Midwest today. At the surface, another
   lee trough will develop in the High Plains with a surface high
   remaining in place over Ontario/Quebec.

   ...North Dakota/Minnesota...
   Dry surface trajectories out of the surface high will continue for
   another day. With the strength of the lee trough being similar to
   previous days, enhanced southerly winds will be present across the
   Red River Valley vicinity. RH could fall to around 20% during the
   afternoon. Winds will generally be light, but 15-20 mph will occur
   on a broad enough basis to support elevated fire weather. Despite
   green up, fuel reports suggest enough dry fuels exist to support a
   larger fire should an ignition occur.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 281754

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


   No changes to the forecast are needed. Recent ensemble guidance has
   trended towards slightly higher probability of 15+ mph winds with
   15% RH across parts of southern NV into northwest AZ/southwest UT,
   but recent ERC values are near seasonal normal and should mitigate
   more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for
   additional details.

   ..Moore.. 05/28/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/

   The mid-level trough in the upper Midwest will continue to move
   northeast and weaken with time on Monday. This will allow the
   surface trough to progress farther east into the Plains. Similarly,
   the surface high will migrate towards the New England coast.
   Southerly winds will continue across parts of the Dakotas and
   Minnesota. Despite the continued windy conditions, the eastward
   progression of the surface high should allow for trajectories to
   advect greater moisture into the region. That being said, RH is
   expected to remain above critical thresholds on Monday.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 281947

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Fire weather concerns will likely remain limited to the southwestern
   U.S. through the extended period where recent ensemble guidance
   continues to show a weak signal for appreciable precipitation.
   Long-range guidance also maintains a signal for anomalously
   high-amplitude upper ridging over the central CONUS with an active
   sub-tropical stream across northern Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico.
   This will allow for a series of shortwave perturbations to propagate
   along the international border that may support breezy winds across
   AZ/NM. While localized elevated conditions will be possible each
   day, a somewhat more robust wave appears likely during the
   D4/Wednesday time frame across the Southwest that should support
   more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southeast AZ into NM per
   ensemble probabilities. Given the antecedent dry conditions and
   little moisture return into the region prior to D5/Wednesday, fire
   weather concerns appear probable (though confidence in the intensity
   and coverage of the threat remains uncertain). Elsewhere across the
   CONUS, warm and dry conditions are expected across the Midwest/Great
   Lakes region, but weak flow under the upper ridge will limit the
   potential for robust/widespread fire weather concerns.

   ..Moore.. 05/28/2023

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