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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 121532

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

   No changes to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east,
   transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong
   southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation
   passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of
   the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are
   forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and
   southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across
   parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity
   will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   conditions.

   ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado...
   As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching
   shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly
   surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope
   trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum
   RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of
   15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of
   elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over
   parts of NM and southern CO.

   ...Texas Rio Grande Valley...
   To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest
   to increase through much of the day with the approach of the
   upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place
   behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected
   over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic
   surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%
   may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 121934

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological
   conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas
   Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some
   greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem
   warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible
   near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally
   depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however.

   ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to
   intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West
   Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow
   aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into
   a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface
   winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface
   winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much
   of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels
   and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

   ...High Plains...
   To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds
   are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern
   CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle.
   Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum
   humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO,
   western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence
   exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent
   rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of
   drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical
   fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

   ...Central Plains...
   As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the
   northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of
   the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture,
   sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values
   may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is
   still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and
   very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface
   conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated
   fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into
   southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible
   farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in
   sustained winds and fuels exists here.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122023

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   A potent upper-level low will continue to move eastward out of the
   Great Basin into the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
   A deep lee cyclone is expected to form Monday afternoon along the
   CO/KS border. The shortwave trough will lift into the Midwest/Great
   Lakes by midweek with the surface low following a similar track.
   Fire weather concerns are expected to focus within the southern High
   Plains during the extended period.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Critical fire weather potential will increase as the trough begins
   to the eject into the region on Monday. Strong mid-level winds will
   overlap with a deepening surface cyclone to the north to produce
   areas of 20-30 mph winds along with RH that could fall to near 10%
   behind the dryline. Some areas have observed rainfall in the past
   few days which has helped reduce fuel receptiveness. Critical
   probabilities have been kept lower in those areas.

   As the surface low departs, strong westerly winds will remain across
   the region on Tuesday. As winds will be on a gradual decrease into
   the afternoon, potential for critical fire weather should remain
   lower than on Monday. The eastern/northern extent of potential fire
   weather concerns will be determined by where and how much
   precipitation occurs Monday afternoon/evening.

   With the upper-level pattern beginning to become rapidly less
   predictable by Wednesday, confidence in potential critical fire
   weather is quite low through the remainder of the extended period.
   There is a low probability that elevated fire weather continues into
   Wednesday across parts of the region. Trends in model guidance will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024
      




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