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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 081646

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

   Valid 081700Z - 091200Z


   No changes; another day of warm and very dry surface conditions may
   promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions across MI and the
   Great Lakes where fuels are exceptionally dry. However, weak wind
   fields beneath high pressure are expected to keep conditions below
   Elevated criteria. Please see the previous discussion for more

   ..Lyons.. 06/08/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023/

   A mid-level trough will continue to sag southward along the East
   Coast today as broad cyclonic upper flow persists over the
   Southwestern U.S. Dry surface air will meander across the Ohio
   Valley and Mid Atlantic toward the central Appalachians, while
   seasonably dry air overspreads the Desert Southwest by afternoon
   peak heating. In both regimes, the surface wind field is expected to
   be weak, with wildfire-spread potential being more localized. As
   such, no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 080544

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   The mid-level trough on the East Coast will begin to eject into the
   Atlantic as a mid-level impulse overspreads the Desert Southwest
   tomorrow/Friday. Dry air will continue to meander around the
   Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and points eastward to the Carolina Piedmont,
   but with weak surface wind fields. The lack of stronger surface
   winds suggests that fire-weather spread potential should remain more
   localized. As the western upper-level impulse overspreads the
   Southwest, boundary-layer mixing will encourage dry and breezy
   conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West
   Texas. 15 mph sustained westerly surface flow is forecast to overlap
   with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting the
   introduction of Elevated highlights.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2023

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 072155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   Across the CONUS, an upper-level low will linger over the Northeast
   before moving offshore into the weekend. Unusually dry conditions
   are expected over the Northeast and Great Lakes supporting some risk
   for localized fire-weather conditions early, before a cold front
   sweeps south D3/Fri. Later in the weekend and into nearly next week,
   ridging aloft will give way to stronger flow ahead of a trough over
   the Southwest. Very warm and dry conditions, along with increasing
   winds will support a risk for critical fire-weather conditions
   through the end of the extended forecast period.

   A shortwave trough will move quickly through the Southwest and
   southern high Plains D3/Friday bringing slightly stronger flow aloft
   with its passage. Across southern NM and AZ, locally enhanced wind
   fields may allow for surface winds to reach 15-25 mph coincident
   with humidity of 15% during the afternoon. On the periphery of
   recent precipitation, fuels across this area are dry and elevated
   fire-weather conditions are possible. 

   A brief lull in fire concerns is expected across the Southwest in
   the wake of the shortwave trough Saturday as the shortwave departs
   to the east. Locally gusty winds and low humidity may support a
   lower-end risk for fire weather, but widespread concerns are not

   Better chances for widespread elevated to critical fire-weather
   conditions will develop day 5/Sun through the end of the forecast
   period, A second, stronger trough will emerge across the Southwest
   accompanied by 55-70 kt of mid-level flow. Aided by the stronger
   flow aloft, surface winds of 20-30 mph appear increasingly likely
   colocated with critical RH values. While some uncertainty on the
   receptiveness of area fuels exists, several days of drying before
   hand do suggest higher probabilities for critical fire-weather
   conditions are likely. 40% areas have been added across portions of
   NM and AZ where model guidance is in agreement on dry and windy
   surface conditions developing. 70% areas may be needed as better
   information on fuels is realized in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Lyons.. 06/07/2023

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