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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 041531

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0931 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

   Valid 041700Z - 051200Z


   The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
   or additions made.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023/

   A low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward from the
   central/southern Plains into the middle MS Valley, while a weak cold
   front moves southward across the southern High Plains. Modest
   downslope warming/drying and breezy surface winds in the vicinity of
   the front could yield locally elevated conditions over portions of
   the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, the stronger
   surface winds will generally be displaced east of the more
   substantial RH reductions -- precluding Elevated highlights.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 040800

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z


   An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer
   west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS --
   impinging on the central/southern Rockies by the evening hours. In
   response, surface lee troughing will deepen over the
   central/southern High Plains, promoting a corridor of 15-20 mph
   sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) over
   northeastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. These breezy/gusty
   surface winds, coupled with 15-20 percent RH, will yield elevated to
   spotty critical conditions during the afternoon. Given continued
   drying of fine fuels and a lack of precipitation through this
   corridor, Elevated highlights have been added.

   While elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions are
   also possible farther north along the I-25 corridor in southern CO
   and south into southeastern NM, fuels do not appear as receptive to
   wildfire spread in these areas given recent precipitation/snowpack.

   ..Weinman.. 02/04/2023

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 032138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the
   CONUS this week. This should promote dry, breezy conditions at the
   surface across the southern High Plains through the period,
   particularly D3/Sunday and D4/Monday. Beyond D5/Tuesday,
   predictability of the individual troughs degrades, though pockets of
   elevated fire risk are possible.

   ...Day 3/Sunday...
   Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to develop across
   eastern New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle. RH may be near
   10-20% with gusts to 25-30 mph in the region. Fine fuels have begun
   the drying process and are expected to be marginally receptive to
   fire spread by Sunday. Because the elevated fire weather conditions
   are expected to be localized, 40% highlights were withheld on this
   outlook, though an Elevated risk area may be introduced in
   subsequent outlooks.

   ...Day 4/Monday...
   Strong downslope winds are expected to develop again across
   southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of west Texas on Monday
   afternoon. RH may be in the 5-15% range with gusts to 30-35 mph
   across the region. For these reasons, a 40% highlight has been
   introduced. One mitigating factor for fire risk may be fuels, which
   are currently marginally dry. However, the fine fuels are expected
   to be sufficiently dry for fire spread, given no precipitation
   through at least Monday.

   ..Supinie.. 02/03/2023

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