U.S. Alerts
El Dorado Weather Logo
U.S. Radar Loop Conditions Map

U.S. Color Satellite North America Color Infrared Animated Satellite Loop

Interactive Wx Map Live U.S. Google Map Radar Thumbnail Image

US Precipitation 1 day, 24 hour precipitation map

US Temperatures US Conditions Map

US Climate Data US Conditions Map

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 131634

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

   Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

   The main change to the updated Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to add
   isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and
   northern AZ. Fuels across this region are becoming critically
   receptive to wildfire spread, with ERCs exceeding the 90th
   percentile over several locations. Thunderstorms are expected to be
   brief and sparse through much of the afternoon, with a slight
   increase in coverage possible tonight. While thunderstorm coverage
   may not reach 10 percent over any short interval of time, the
   longer-term summation of strikes (wet or dry) over fuels primed for
   ignitions suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are
   warranted. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with
   occasionally Elevated dry and breezy conditions still expected over
   portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/

   A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a
   related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads
   western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening
   surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface
   winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry
   boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor
   elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. 

   Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late
   afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT --
   aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If
   afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be
   high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V
   thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions
   would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm
   development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding
   Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm
   development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of
   wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH
   and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 131925

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of
   Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona
   for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are
   expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon,
   just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support
   drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving
   slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently
   become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the
   introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the
   previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/

   A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate
   south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward
   across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak
   surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy
   westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM.
   Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH),
   elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected.
   The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is
   marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend
   upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks.

   Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a
   midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated
   downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally
   dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern
   WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected
   for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in
   northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds
   are expected.

   On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel
   offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a
   result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely
   overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight
   hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where
   fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered
   for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized
   for such highlights at this time.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 132152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist over the northwestern
   quadrant of the CONUS through late next week as an upper ridge
   dominates the central and eastern CONUS. Several days of
   wildfire-spread potential are evident over the Interior West as
   multiple mid-level troughs pivot around the broad cyclonic flow
   aloft. The first in a series of mid-level troughs will overspread
   the Pacific Northwest on Day 3 (Saturday), with dry and windy
   conditions overspreading drying fuels to the lee of the Cascades,
   and farther south across southern portions of the Great Basin. By
   Days 4-5 (Sunday and Monday), a broader and more amplified mid-level
   trough will traverse the Interior West, supporting dry and windy
   conditions atop receptive fuels from portions of the California
   Valley area, to the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. The best
   chance for Critically dry and windy conditions atop receptive fuels
   will be over southern Utah into much of northern and central Arizona
   and far western New Mexico, where 70 percent Critical probabilities
   have been added. Thereafter, the mid-level trough will depart the
   region. Dry conditions will persist, but questions remain regarding
   the strength of the surface wind field, precluding the addition of
   Critical probabilities for Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday).

   ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024

Contact Us Contact Us Thumbnail | Mobile Mobile Phone Thumbnail
Private Policy | Terms & Conds | Consent Preferences | Cookie Policy
Never base any life decisions on weather information from this site or anywhere over the Internet.
Site is dedicated to our Lord & Savior Jesus Christ | Random Quotes of Jesus

Copyright © 2024 El Dorado Weather, Inc. | Site Designed By:  Webmaster Danny