U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041531
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.
..Squitieri.. 02/04/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023/
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward from the
central/southern Plains into the middle MS Valley, while a weak cold
front moves southward across the southern High Plains. Modest
downslope warming/drying and breezy surface winds in the vicinity of
the front could yield locally elevated conditions over portions of
the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, the stronger
surface winds will generally be displaced east of the more
substantial RH reductions -- precluding Elevated highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040800
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer
west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS --
impinging on the central/southern Rockies by the evening hours. In
response, surface lee troughing will deepen over the
central/southern High Plains, promoting a corridor of 15-20 mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) over
northeastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. These breezy/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 15-20 percent RH, will yield elevated to
spotty critical conditions during the afternoon. Given continued
drying of fine fuels and a lack of precipitation through this
corridor, Elevated highlights have been added.
While elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions are
also possible farther north along the I-25 corridor in southern CO
and south into southeastern NM, fuels do not appear as receptive to
wildfire spread in these areas given recent precipitation/snowpack.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2023
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032138
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the
CONUS this week. This should promote dry, breezy conditions at the
surface across the southern High Plains through the period,
particularly D3/Sunday and D4/Monday. Beyond D5/Tuesday,
predictability of the individual troughs degrades, though pockets of
elevated fire risk are possible.
...Day 3/Sunday...
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to develop across
eastern New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle. RH may be near
10-20% with gusts to 25-30 mph in the region. Fine fuels have begun
the drying process and are expected to be marginally receptive to
fire spread by Sunday. Because the elevated fire weather conditions
are expected to be localized, 40% highlights were withheld on this
outlook, though an Elevated risk area may be introduced in
subsequent outlooks.
...Day 4/Monday...
Strong downslope winds are expected to develop again across
southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of west Texas on Monday
afternoon. RH may be in the 5-15% range with gusts to 30-35 mph
across the region. For these reasons, a 40% highlight has been
introduced. One mitigating factor for fire risk may be fuels, which
are currently marginally dry. However, the fine fuels are expected
to be sufficiently dry for fire spread, given no precipitation
through at least Monday.
..Supinie.. 02/03/2023
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