U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns should be minimal today, as an expansive
post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central and eastern
CONUS. Warm/dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though
generally weak surface winds (outside of local terrain enhancements)
and marginal fuels should limit large-fire potential.
..Weinman.. 04/20/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200654
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A strong midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern
Rockies during peak heating, while a related cold front overspreads
the region. This will promote strong, post-frontal westerly surface
winds across portions of northern MT, which could briefly overlap
20-30 percent RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible.
Farther east, the southern periphery of a belt of strong deep-layer
northwesterly flow will overspread MN, WI, and Lower MI.
Boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the enhanced flow
aloft will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH.
While locally elevated conditions are possible, uncertainty
regarding fuels and marginal winds/RH limit confidence in the
large-fire threat.
Lastly, locally elevated conditions are possible over portions of
east-central FL during the afternoon, where diurnal heating amid
enhanced deep-layer westerly flow should favor breezy/gusty surface
winds and around 30 percent RH. Overall, these conditions appear too
localized for an Elevated area at this time.
..Weinman.. 04/20/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192248
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half
of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level
troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi
River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance
for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to
the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level
conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns.
By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a
mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface
cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become
established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon,
with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind
the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur
within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of
rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical
probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024
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