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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 191528
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES
INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
The Critical area was expanded south along the Colorado Rockies with
a slight expansion of the Elevated in portions of central Colorado
and southwest Texas based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Westerly wind gusts of 40-70 mph
with RH of 15-30% are already being observed in southeast Wyoming,
along portions of the Front Range, and into the western Nebraska
Panhandle. Cloud cover is over much of the southern/central High
Plains, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions are likely to
continue today. However, given the strong background flow and dry
airmass, elevated to locally critical conditions remain expected
across much of the southern/central High Plains, with critical to
extremely critical conditions along/east the Front Range into
southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. This includes
wind gusts up to 100 mph and minimum RH around 10%. A Particularly
Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning has been issued by the
NWS Boulder Weather Forecast Office for along/west of the Highway 93
corridor into the foothills from near Golden, CO extending north to
near Lyons, CO.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a
low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies
into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb
west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper
trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the
day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing
will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High
Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon,
warranting Elevated highlights.
Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of
central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the
strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending
to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum
transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20
mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of
particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central
CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex
terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with
gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH
along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support
rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential
ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190747
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and
eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low
drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal
boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least
a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico
into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical
highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus
depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH
amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border.
..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with
ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow
aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level
troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This
stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on
portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week.
Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for
the forecast period.
...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity...
West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in
elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas
into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may
extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary
layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range
forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in
the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no
precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with
the frontal passage.
...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains...
Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains
early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on
the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets
pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day
5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the
downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this
week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated
conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over
multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled
with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day
event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities
likely needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
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