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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201635

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
   TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

   ...Update...
   No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing
   westerly winds throughout the afternoon, with RH dropping into the
   low teens to single digits. Please see the previous discussion for
   additional details.

   ..Barnes.. 12/20/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great
   Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening
   surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope
   flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
   Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During
   the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20
   percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds
   exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of
   Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict
   overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
   RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical
   highlights have been maintained.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200712

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday),
   with surface high pressure becoming established east of the
   Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly
   flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are
   likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest
   moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may
   limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire
   weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday.

   ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192112

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into
   the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the
   upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the
   Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery
   of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing
   across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to
   develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking
   down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US. 

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern
   Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day
   4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical
   fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far
   southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears
   to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge
   builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy
   conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40%
   area. 

   On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will
   move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase
   downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions.
   While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and
   location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due
   to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features.
   Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the
   southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West
   and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the
   southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the
   stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing
   probabilities at this time.

   Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple
   rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the
   southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure.
   Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in
   portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast
   elevated/critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
      




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