ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281754

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes to the forecast are needed. Recent ensemble guidance has
   trended towards slightly higher probability of 15+ mph winds with
   15% RH across parts of southern NV into northwest AZ/southwest UT,
   but recent ERC values are near seasonal normal and should mitigate
   more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for
   additional details.

   ..Moore.. 05/28/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid-level trough in the upper Midwest will continue to move
   northeast and weaken with time on Monday. This will allow the
   surface trough to progress farther east into the Plains. Similarly,
   the surface high will migrate towards the New England coast.
   Southerly winds will continue across parts of the Dakotas and
   Minnesota. Despite the continued windy conditions, the eastward
   progression of the surface high should allow for trajectories to
   advect greater moisture into the region. That being said, RH is
   expected to remain above critical thresholds on Monday.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 281947

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Fire weather concerns will likely remain limited to the southwestern
   U.S. through the extended period where recent ensemble guidance
   continues to show a weak signal for appreciable precipitation.
   Long-range guidance also maintains a signal for anomalously
   high-amplitude upper ridging over the central CONUS with an active
   sub-tropical stream across northern Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico.
   This will allow for a series of shortwave perturbations to propagate
   along the international border that may support breezy winds across
   AZ/NM. While localized elevated conditions will be possible each
   day, a somewhat more robust wave appears likely during the
   D4/Wednesday time frame across the Southwest that should support
   more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southeast AZ into NM per
   ensemble probabilities. Given the antecedent dry conditions and
   little moisture return into the region prior to D5/Wednesday, fire
   weather concerns appear probable (though confidence in the intensity
   and coverage of the threat remains uncertain). Elsewhere across the
   CONUS, warm and dry conditions are expected across the Midwest/Great
   Lakes region, but weak flow under the upper ridge will limit the
   potential for robust/widespread fire weather concerns.

   ..Moore.. 05/28/2023