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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251651

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   The elevated area has been expanded based on observed conditions
   this morning as well as updated fuel information.

   ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the
   western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several
   small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow
   will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough.
   Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely
   support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions.

   ...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the
   Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the
   stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of
   20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO
   and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with
   unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in
   the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is
   expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical
   fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. 

   Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across
   parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are
   expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions
   appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather
   conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty
   on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain
   more localized.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250759

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
   WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE....

   ...Synopsis...
   Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually
   coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific
   trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak
   perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across
   the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee
   trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum
   transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds
   across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and
   dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical
   fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.

   ...Southern and central High Plains...
   As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee
   troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central
   High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday
   afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western
   TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon
   RH values will fall to 15-20%.  Intensifying dryness in area fuels
   is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with
   the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to
   critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and
   central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also
   possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,
   though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.

   ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242106

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

   A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new
   week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great
   Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern
   Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker
   southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale
   ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying
   trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests
   general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with
   time.

   ...Central/Southern High Plains...
   The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern
   stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately
   strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions.
   Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH
   reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least
   a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will
   also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but
   RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel
   receptiveness.

   For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward
   will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
   with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover,
   temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions.
   However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be
   maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase
   rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until
   early evening.

   As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by
   Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible
   across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains.
   The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of
   predictability and precipitation in these areas should be
   minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is
   uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These
   areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days.

   ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
      




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