Stateline, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS65 KREV 021054
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
254 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Freezing fog in the Sierra and NE California may pose impacts to
  this morning`s commute.

* Low pressure will bring gusty winds and increased shower chances
  on Tuesday.

* Dry and mild weather prevails after Tuesday with signs of a more
  unsettled weather pattern around Veterans Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current imagery from the GOES-18 satellite night fog product as well
as from area cameras such as the runway camera at the Truckee
Tahoe Airport shows a good amount of freezing fog in areas around
both the Boca and Stampede Reservoirs this morning. Due to the
yesterday`s precipitation and clear skies tonight: the conditions
are right for this hazard continue in this particular area, with
the potential for localized areas of freezing fog in other Sierra
and NE CA valleys through around 10-11 AM PDT today. Please use
caution if traveling through these areas such as on I-80 as
visibility could become limited and roads may be slick.

Going through the rest of today, forecast guidance shows an upper
ridge moving over the region sandwiched between two low pressure
troughs. This pattern aloft allows for dry conditions today with
warmer daytime high temperatures (compared to Sunday`s highs) in
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Cloud coverage does look to increase
this afternoon and evening with models showing a good amount of
moisture at 500mb level moving over the region. These clouds will
help the decrease the amount overnight cooling a bit, leading to
the overnight low temperatures being warmer (by 5-10 degrees in
the Sierra and by up to 5 degrees in W NV) than those experienced
on the previous night.

On Tuesday, model guidance shows the trailing low pressure behind
the departing ridge moving across N CA and then into N NV by the
overnight hours. This upper pattern will cause increasing winds and
rain/mountain snow shower chances within the region during the day.
Forecast model cross sections are showing a downslope wind signature
present on Tuesday as well with this system. Sierra ridgetop winds
will begin to increase in the morning as the low approaches and
gust up to around 60-80 mph generally out of the south-southwest.
These increased winds may mix down in the Eastern Sierra valleys
and adjacent W NV, causing surface winds to gust up to 25-35 mph
(45 mph in wind-prone areas). As for precipitation on Tuesday:
the 06Z run of the RRFS model shows a line of light showers moving
west into the Sierra and NE CA around 11 AM-12 PM PST, into the
Sierra Front around 2-3 PM, then into the NV Basin and Range
around 5-6 PM, and finally out of the region by 8-9 PM. Will
continue to monitor this going forward to see if the timing
changes. The latest chances for precipitation look to be around
30-60% in NE CA and the Tahoe region with the remainder of the
region seeing generally ~20% or less on Tuesday. Models continue
to show the showers being shadowed out and keeping accumulations
light. The latest QPF values for Tuesday range between a trace and
0.05 inches with the higher end amounts at the Sierra crest. The
latest NBM probabilities show a 40-60% chance of 1+ inches of new
snow at the Sierra crest by Tuesday evening, so there may be some
minor travel impacts if you are traveling across the Sierra.

Ensemble guidance then shows the upper low departing on Wednesday
with a flattened upper ridge moving over region behind it. This
ridge strengthens a bit going into next weekend, signaling
temperatures taking a warming trend with dry conditions prevailing
during the latter half of the week. Longer term guidance has mild
and dry weather continuing into the following week, but also
still shows signals of a possible return of wetter weather around
Veterans Day. Please continue to watch the forecast as this
potential system draws closer as there is still some good
uncertainty this far out. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for most area TAF sites today. The
exception is at KTRK which currently sees FZFG dropping
visibilities through around 02/17Z. Otherwise, relatively light
winds are expected with high cloud coverage increasing through the
day. This cloud cover may inhibit fog reformation near KTRK later
tonight, but will continue to monitor conditions and amend TAFs
as needed.

Increased winds and rain/mountain snow shower chances are expected
in the region on Tuesday, with Sierra ridgetops gusting up to around
60-70 kts causing potential mountain wave turbulence. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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