Pollock Pines, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

722
FXUS66 KSTO 202011
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
111 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather with periodically breezy to gusty northerly
winds continues through midweek. A cooling trend is then expected
from Friday into the upcoming holiday weekend as onshore flow
returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of early this afternoon, aside from some cumulus beginning to
bubble along the Sierra, mostly clear skies are evident over the
remainder of interior NorCal on latest GOES-West satellite imagery.
Breezy to gusty northerly winds also continue, with strongest gusts
of 30 to 35 mph being observed through the northern and central
Sacramento Valley. Winds are expected to gradually lessen through
the afternoon, with strongest gusts generally subsiding by the late
evening hours. Otherwise, a few isolated showers will be possible
(15% to 25% chance) along the Sierra crest, generally south of
the I-80 corridor, through the early evening.

Moving into Tuesday, northerly winds will remain breezy, but lesser
than today. Heights aloft are expected to rise for a brief period
ahead of the next passing shortwave trough traveling through the
Pacific Northwest, which will result in temperatures warming back to
slightly above normal by Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks to see
similarly breezy and seasonably warm conditions, with the
aforementioned trough then beginning to dig toward the Intermountain
West late Wednesday into Thursday. As this trough moves within the
vicinity of interior NorCal, another period of gusty northerly winds
is expected on Thursday, with forecast gusts to 30 mph across the
northern and central Sacramento Valley. Additionally, there is a 40%
to 60% probability of gusts reaching 40 mph in this corridor as
well.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Following the shortwave passage on Thursday, broad, large scale
troughing aloft looks to overtake the region from Friday into the
weekend. Despite the fairly active upper level pattern, impacts at
the surface generally look to remain limited. The primary shift will
be from northerly surface winds to breezy south to west winds as
onshore flow returns to interior NorCal. High temperatures by Friday
look to cool to near normal under this regime.

Within this broad troughing, an embedded shortwave trough then looks
to dig across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great
Basin, resulting in, more or less, another glancing blow for
interior NorCal. Given the proximity of the trough, a few
isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out over the northern
Sacramento Valley and across the higher terrain on Saturday, but
current probabilities of exceeding 0.10" of rainfall reside below
5% at this time. The primary impact will be temperatures cooling
to below normal on Saturday, with Valley high temperatures in the
70s and 50s to 60s at higher elevations. The shortwave responsible
for this cool down is then expected to allow the broad troughing
to eject eastward, with heights aloft then rising again and upper
level ridging beginning to build in across the western CONUS from
Sunday into early next week. Onshore flow is then expected to
persist alongside temperatures gradually warming back up above
normal for Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Areas of northerly surface wind
gusts 15-25 kts across the Northern Sacramento Valley and I-5
corridor north of Sacramento until 21z Tuesday. Winds elsewhere
will begin to slowly trend down after 21z Monday lowering under 12
kts in the Valley after 03z Tuesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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