en Español

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of 
Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more 
conducive for development in a couple of days while the system moves 
slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
  

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152100
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W, south of 20N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 06N to 17N and between 14W and 25W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 12N to 20N and between 53W and 60W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W and continues 
to 08N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 12N55W. 
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 10N between 28W and 43W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the gulf waters. Gentle to
locally moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a strong high pressure over the eastern United
States will build southward behind a weakening cold front that
will spread across the eastern Gulf waters. The tighter pressure
gradient will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and
rough seas starting in the NE Gulf tonight and spreading over
the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu night. 
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu night, bringing nightly
pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds. Conditions will 
improve across the basin Fri, allowing for moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over
the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are over
the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas,
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge located north of the islands and lower pressures in
Colombia will support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the
central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from
11N to 18N. These conditions will persist through the workweek.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings
near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through midweek. Winds
may diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the
upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas
also slightly subsiding. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just NW of Bermuda southwestward to 
along 30N to northern Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds,
and moderate seas, prevail N of the front. A surface trough
extends from 30N52W to 26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in
the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder
of the discussion waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and
slight seas, prevail N of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas are found elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will shift slightly 
southward through early Wed, then will become stationary from 
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by late Wed. A tight pressure gradient 
between the building ridge over the eastern United States and the 
front will result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to 
build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. 
Conditions will improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to 
later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to
move west-northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, 
bringing thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure 
gradient.

$$
AL
  

en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152310
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fifteen-E, located well west-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico by the end of the week.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development by the weekend, and this 
system could become a tropical depression early next week while it 
moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Gulf of California:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
small area of low pressure that is moving northward over the central 
Gulf of California.  While this system has only a slight chance of 
formation before it moves inland on Wednesday over the state of 
Sonora, periods of heavy rain and isolated flooding are possible 
over that state during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western Portion of the Eastern Pacific:
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be 
unfavorable for significant development through the weekend as the 
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Some gradual development of 
this system is possible early next week when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
  

921 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160232
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure building over southern Mexico and the eastern north
Pacific monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N 
to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Wed, and will
reach minimal gale force Wed night. Rough seas will accompany 
these gap winds.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 02N to 17N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N116W. It resumes
from 13N128W to 13N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 00N to 12N east of 132W, and from 10N to 16N between 135W 
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale
warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds are over the 
northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft 
are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the central and southern 
Gulf.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for 
information about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Elsewhere, fresh SE to S winds pulse across the northern Gulf of
California through Wed. Large N swell off Baja California Norte 
near Guadalupe Island will subside through mid week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate seas, prevail 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 
90W. Moderate to fresh winds extend downstream from the Gulf of
Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and 
Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through mid 
week, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate 
winds and seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Remnants Of Fifteen-E is centered near 15.5N 125.8W at 16/0300
UTC, moving west-southwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 120W
and 125W. The system will continue to weaken while on a general 
westward to west-southwestward motion then dissipate by Thu 
morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

SW swell from the southern hemisphere is crossing the equator 
and reaching as far north as 03N between 105W and 120W. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4-6 ft combined seas in mixed swell are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, even as Fifteen-E dissipates, a broad area of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in N
swell will persist through the remainder of the week from 15N to
25N west of 125W between the remnant trough and the subtropical 
ridge to its north.

The southerly swell south of 03N will subside below 8 ft by this
evening.

$$
Christensen
  

en Español

000
ACPN50 PHFO 152310
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Tue Sep 15 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN