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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave 
during the next several days.  Some development of this system is 
possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early 
to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward 
near the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

000
AXNT20 KNHC 262111
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22.5W, south of 22.5N
to across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 15-20 
kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34.5W, south
of 22N, moving slowly west at 5-10 kt. Convection is described in
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78.5W, south
of 20N, moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection, likely enhanced by the Colombian/Panamanian Low and 
the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from
the coast of Panama north to 12N west of 75W, and from 14N to 17N
between 70W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and 
continues southwestward to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N47W 
to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 06N to 13N and between 23W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough located offshore Texas and Louisiana continues 
to support scattered moderate convection across the NW Gulf, north
of 27N and west of 86W. Elsewhere, weak surface troughs are in 
the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging prevails, 
providing light to gentle E Winds and seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf 
waters through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW 
Yucatan over the next several days. A weak high pressure cell will
develop over the eastern Gulf by Sun. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Earlier scatterometer data depicted ongoing fresh to strong 
trades in the central Caribbean with resultant seas of 6-8 ft in 
this area of wind. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 
3-6 ft seas.

Weather conditions continue to support the potential for heavy 
rainfall over the southwest Caribbean, including western Panama 
and Costa Rica through Sat, and over eastern Nicaragua and 
northeast Honduras Sat into Sun. This rain could be significant, 
causing flooding and possible mudslides. Please refer to your 
local and national meteorological agency for details.

For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the western 
Caribbean on Sat, reaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun. The 
Atlantic ridge will build over the east and central Caribbean in 
the wake of the wave. This pattern will support fresh to strong 
trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the 
middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 
building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis 
through Sun with locally strong winds and rough seas across the 
Gulf of Honduras Sun night.

Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central 
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an 
approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some 
development of this system will be possible while it approaches 
the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week 
and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles 
toward the latter part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough located beneath a broad upper level low near the
central Bahamas is supporting clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms from 22N to 29N between 67W and 79W. The remainder
of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a classic summer
Bermuda-Azores high centered along 31N. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the basin, except moderate to fresh south of the
monsoon trough between 25W and 35W. Seas are 4-6 ft across the 
open Atlantic, except to 7 ft in the moderate to fresh monsoonal
winds, and also to 7 ft east of the northern Leeward Islands. Seas
are less than 4 ft west of the Bahamas and in the Straits of 
Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will 
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several 
days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off
the Carolina coast on Sat. The front will stall over the N waters
W of 70W on Mon while dissipating. The pattern will support fresh
to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun, and gentle to 
moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas
may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue 
associated with an approaching tropical wave.

Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central 
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an 
approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some 
development of this system will be possible while it approaches 
the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week 
and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles 
toward the latter part of the week.

$$
Lewitsky

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud, located well west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week a few 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter 
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262038
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud is centered near 19.2N 120.5W at
26/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is well removed from the center, between 60 
nm and 120 nm in the NW quadrant. A slower west-southwestward 
motion is forecast this weekend. Further weakening is expected, 
and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sun. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
the latest Bud NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W from 03N at the Pacific
coast of Colombia northward across eastern Panama and the
Caribbean Sea, moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Nearby
convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 07N to 19N near 
the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly west at around 5 kt.
Nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 130.5W from 05N to 18N, 
moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N114W, then resumes
from 15N122W to 11N131W. The ITCZ extends from 11N131W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10.5N
between 77W and 91W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 91W and 98W, from 10N
to 17N between 104W and 118W, and from 12N to 16N between 120W
and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A thin plume of fresh N winds is in the immediate Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the 
offshore waters of Mexico, including in the Gulf of California,
as sampled by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are in the 
4-6 ft range in the open waters in mainly S to SW swell, and 1-3
ft in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft near the entrance.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of California this weekend. Fresh N winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec at times. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere through the next several days, except increasing to
moderate to fresh off Baja California Norte early next week.
Moderate seas will persist across the open waters, building
somewhat off Baja California early next week. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week a few 
hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Some slow development is possible after that time as the system 
moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt parallel to the coast 
of Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in 
mainly S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through the middle of next week, locally strong Sun
night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features for information on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Bud.

Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
17N and west of 130W, locally strong per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds south of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft 
range across these waters above, mainly in merging NE and SE 
swells. Aside from these winds and Post-Tropical Bud, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, 
with 4-7 ft seas, highest west of 110W.

For the forecast, Bud will become a remnant low and move to 
19.1N 121.8W Sat morning, 18.9N 123.4W Sat afternoon, 18.5N 
125.0W Sun morning, 17.8N 126.6W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon
morning. South of 20N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh winds 
combined with long-period southerly swell will support seas of 
7-9 ft through Sat evening. Marine conditions may become more 
tranquil by the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky

No Storms to Report