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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310507
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
626
AXNT20 KNHC 310615
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N22W where
it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 06N41W to
08N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to
14N between 10W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern
United States, a surface trough over the northern Bahamas and a
trough over the SW Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh east
winds across the northeast Gulf. Moderate seas to 6 ft are with
these winds. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds prevails
elsewhere.
For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high
pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure over the Bahamas
and the NW Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and moderate seas across the northeast and
north-central Gulf into Mon. Looking ahead, expect a cold front
to enter the northwest Gulf Tue night, and move slowly
southeastward, reaching the east-central Gulf Wed night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of
America and the W Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia
supports fresh to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas in the south-
central Caribbean offshore Colombia. Mainly moderate trades and
3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and
eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are
elsewhere. Otherwise, a surface trough analyzed along the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshores supports scattered heavy
showers over these offshore areas. Isolated showers are elsewhere
in the NE and south-central basin.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and
eastern Caribbean will continue through Mon, with small areas of
strong winds near the coast of NW Colombia and NW Venezuela.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon
through Wed as broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic
well to the NE of the Bahamas.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low NE of Bermuda southwestward
to 22N69W. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front to
55W and N of 24N. Moderate to fresh NNE winds follow the front
along with 7-8 ft seas. Over the E subtropics, another cold front
extends from 30N23W SW to 24N31W where it stalls and weakens to
21N40W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are N of 24N
reaching east as far as 13W, including the Canary Islands. Surface
ridging dominates elsewhere N of 20N. Fresh to strong NNE winds
and rough seas to 11 ft follow this front.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low will shift northeastward
through the weekend, with strong high pressure building into the
western Atlantic, and forcing a remnant frontal trough southward
to the central Bahamas Sun through early Mon. Fresh to strong
northeast to east winds, with rough seas possibly as high as 12 ft
will persist north of the frontal trough into next week, as the
low pressure moves northeastward, and strong high pressure
gradually builds into the western Atlantic. This will reinvigorate
the frontal trough and force it southeastward, where it will
stall near 24N Sun through early Mon, then lift northward late Mon
through Wed as broad low pressure develops well NE of the
Bahamas.
$$
Ramos
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310502
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
the end of next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310213
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 05N100W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 05N100W to 07N117W. A trough is analyzed from
10N125W to 02N131W. A 1008 mb low is near 07N139W. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 00N to 10N between 95W and
116W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 15N and W
of 124W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas 6-8 ft. The pressure gradient between
higher pressures over Mexico and a trough along the Gulf of
California is supporting moderate S to SW winds over the
southern and northern parts of the Gulf. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker with 4-6 ft over the Pacific waters, 2-5 ft
over the N and central Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue through early next week and diminish by
Mon night. A developing extratropical cyclone should move into
the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over the N
Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to strong SE to
SW winds and seas to 9 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds along with
seas to 5 ft should occur over the Gulf of California on Sun in
the wake of the extratropical cyclone. Moderate or weaker winds
will likely return to the offshore waters Sun into Mon.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo
region with seas 4 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds along seas to 6 ft
are present over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is also occurring from 00N-06N east of 92W.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the
Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through Mon. Fresh N
winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue today before
weakening on Sat. Large, long-period SW swell have reached the
equatorial waters, and will diminish on Sun.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1006 mb low is centered near 26N132W with a cold front
extending southwestward to 15N138W. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds prevail north of the low with seas to 7 ft.
Moderate southwest winds are found along the cold front.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between weak ridging north of
our waters and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing
only moderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large,
long-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to
08N between 95W-137W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.
For the forecast, the low will become a strong extratropical
cyclone and then move slowly eastward this weekend. Overnight,
fresh to strong winds will develop with the low. The system
should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja California
peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by Sun night.
$$
ERA
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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en Español
000
ACPN50 PHFO 310502
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Fri Oct 30 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
the end of next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
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