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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 020016
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pierce/Cangialosi
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 012211
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 07N to 18N between 20W and 30W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 05N to 10N between 45W and 55W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 15N to 17N between 70W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 24N15W and dives southwestward to a 1010 mb
low pressure area near 16N26W and then to 08N45W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N45W to 08N59W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the east-central Gulf. 1017 mb
surface high pressure is centered north of the Yucatan Channel
near 23N85W. This pattern is supporting moderate W winds and 2-4
ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and light to gentle breezes
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure will remain
in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting
gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception
will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan
peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf and over mostly the
eastern portion of the north-central Gulf into the upcoming week
as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast.
Moderate to fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the
front over the far northern Gulf late this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off central Belize,
and off northeastern Costa Rica and southeastern Nicaragua.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge
situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep
tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of
6-9 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, the persistent enhanced pressure gradient
across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the
central basin through the rest of the weekend and into most of
next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over
the eastern Caribbean near 68W, is accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The wave will quickly continue westward
across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much
of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the
subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across
much of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change little through Tue, then
lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue
to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming
week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola
at night through the period.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020016
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Genevieve, located well west of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pierce/Cangialosi
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012101
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 23.3N 135.0W at
01/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft or 6 m.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 60 nm in
the NE semicircle. Genevieve will maintain a gradual weakening
trend while moving on a west- northwestward track over the
weekend. The system is forecast to become post- tropical by early
next week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W, N of 02N into the
Guatemala, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W/120W, from 02N to 18N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section below.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N90W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N90W to 10N115W, and from 10N120W to 08N130W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 12N
between 80W and 95W, and from 09N to 13N between 95W and 115W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the region. Moderate
seas dominate the open waters off Mexico, with slight seas in the
Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of
the area and lowering pressure over the Colorado River Valley
will support fresh SW winds and building seas over the northern
Gulf of California through the early part of next week.
Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will support mostly
gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Mexico.
Long- period NW swell will move into the waters off Baja
California Norte Sun night through then start to subside Tue.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas prevail over
and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, as observed in a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are found between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region into Sun, with occasionally rough
seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are
expected across the remainder of the waters through the period.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.
For waters not impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is centered
just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas in this region
are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and
moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the discussion
waters.
For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve will move
to 23.9N 137.0W Sun morning, 24.8N 139.5W Sun afternoon, then become
a post-tropical remnant low west of the area through Mon. Away
from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast
through the weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is
likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California
Norte north of 27N and east of 130W into early next week. New
large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of
100W beginning Tue night.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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en Español
000
ACPN50 PHFO 020016
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Genevieve, located well west of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pierce/Cangialosi
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