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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions

Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
840 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 925 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an extensive area
of showers and thunderstorms.  However, the system remains 
embedded within a frontal zone, which is expected to become even 
more pronounced later today as the low begins to move 
east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and 
interacts with a mid-latitude trough.  Therefore, it is unlikely 
that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. 
Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of this low is 
expected during the next couple of days, and additional information, 
including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued as necessary during the off-season. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081731
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1805 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A non-tropical low pressure area 
with a central pressure of 981 mb is located about 925 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda near 28N50W. The system continues to 
produce an extensive area of showers and thunderstorms. However, 
the low remains embedded within a frontal zone, which is 
expected to become even more pronounced later today as the low 
begins to move east-northeastward at 20 kts toward colder waters 
and interacts with a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, it is 
unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or 
tropical cyclone.

Showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the an occluded 
front, stretching from the lows center northeastward to 
31.5N45W, then southeastward to 29N40W, where it transitions to 
a stationary front. Recent satellite scatterometer imagery 
reveals a large area of gale force winds mainly north of the 
low, between 41W and 54W. Storm force winds continue north of 
the low from 29N to 33N between 45W and 50W. Seas are peaking at 
29 ft within the area of storm force winds, with very rough to 
high seas covering an extensive area between 40W and 70W. Storm 
conditions will move E of the area today, but gales will prevail 
into tonight in the far NE waters. Large long-period north to 
northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean 
Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean 
producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E 
swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri 
through Sat.

More information about this system, including the associated 
Storm Warning, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W 
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 05N30W and to 
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 
06N, between 30W and 38W. Similar convection is also observed 
from 04N to 09N, between 40W and 47W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb surface high is centered offshore the FL Panhandle 
supporting  generally fair weather conditions and mainly gentle 
moderate easterly breezes over the basin. Recent altimeter data 
and buoy observations are reporting 3 to 5 ft seas over the 
western, central and far southern portion of the basin, with 
seas below 3 ft north of 28N and about 120 nm offshore the FL 
west coast. 

For the forecast, the ridge will meander in the vicinity of the 
NE Gulf through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds 
expected through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh W 
of 94W late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the 
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating 
moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean Sea, 
including the Windward Passage, where seas are likely 6 to 8 ft 
in NE swell. Over the waters between 75W and 70W, seas are 5 to 
7 ft. In the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N winds prevail 
with mainly 5 ft seas. Seas may be up to 6 ft near Atlantic 
passages.

For the forecast, a deepening low pressure system over the 
central subtropical Atlantic will continue to strengthen during 
the next few days as it lifts northeastward. Large NE swell 
across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean 
Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through Sat. The current 
weather pattern will support NE-E winds across much of the 
forecast waters. Fresh to pulsing strong NE-E winds will occur 
in offshore Colombia into early next week. Moderate to pulsing 
fresh NE winds will affect the Caribbean Passages and the lees 
of the Greater Antilles into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a 
storm force low pressure system, affecting the waters north of 
18N between 35W and 60W.

Elsewhere, scatterometer data reveals fresh to strong N to NE 
winds from the Caribbean Islands to 31N and between 61W and 75W, 
where seas are rough to very rough due to the low pressure 
system in the central Atlantic. A weak pressure pattern prevails 
off central and northern Florida, with gentle winds and 4-6 ft 
seas in the far western Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, a 
weak high pressure center prevails offshore W Africa, allowing 
for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow mainly east of 35W, 
where seas are 5 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, large long-period north to northeast 
swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages 
between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing 
high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell 
reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through 
Sat. 

$$
MORA
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Wed Nov 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of 
the 2022 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance 
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2023. During 
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN

Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 07N78W to
06N83W to 06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 09N118W to 
10N129W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 07N to 13N between 119W and 130W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 10N W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong surface ridging extending across the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California against lower pressure associated with
surface trough along the W Mexico coastal waters has increased
the N to NE winds off the Baja peninsula to moderate to fresh
speeds. Seas along this region are up to 5 ft in NW swell. The
tightened pressure gradient in the region is also supporting
fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California, except for moderate
winds in the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas along the gulf
are 3-5 ft, highest near the entrance of the gulf. In the 
Tehuantepec region, fresh to near gale force N winds are 
occurring with seas up to 10 ft. Light to gentle variable winds 
and seas of 3-4 ft are seen across the remainder Mexican 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting
the continuation of fresh winds through Sat. Expect fresh to 
locally strong NW to N winds in the southern and central Gulf of 
California this afternoon through Fri morning as a high pressure 
persists over the Great Basin. These winds will build seas to 7 
ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California late today through 
Fri morning. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front 
is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing 
large NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun 
through Mon. The front could bring strong winds to the northern 
Gulf of California by Sun evening into Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 91W. 
Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Moderate northerly winds are 
in the Gulf of Panama, and downwind to about 05N. Light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the Central. America
offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of
05N across the NW South America offshore waters. Seas are generally
3-4 ft in regions outside of Papagayo.  

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to  
mainly moderate to fresh winds this afternoon and then prevail 
the remainder of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain
below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is
forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the 
offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight
seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through 
the next several days, except in the Papagayo region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface trough extends from 11N128W to 17N124W supporting an
area of heavy showers described in the ITCZ section. A surface 
ridge extends across the northern forecast waters beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands. A large area of fresh to strong NE-E winds
is just N of the the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 125W. Seas 
are 8 to 10 ft across this wind zone. Moderate to fresh SE winds
are noted across much of the area south of the ITCZ to the 
equator, between 110W and 140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast 
area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The aforementioned surface 
trough will move westward, approaching 140W by Fri. The pressure 
gradient between the trough and the aforementioned ridge will 
continue to support a large area of fresh to strong winds across 
the west-central waters. Winds and seas are expected to peak
tonight, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft across the waters from
12N to 24N and W of 130W. The areal coverage of these winds will
decrease Fri night into Sat as a cold front moves across the N 
waters weakening the ridge. The front is forecast to reach the 
forecast region early on Fri followed by a second and stronger 
cold front late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast 
to reach the northern forecast waters by Sat night into Sun, with
seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night.

$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific

No Storms to Report




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