ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030952
   SPC AC 030952

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
   A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into
   the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot
   mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the
   surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from
   central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley.
   Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
   will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the
   moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late
   afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow.
   Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates
   will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of
   producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest
   potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas
   north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
   northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A
   severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid
   to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and
   sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

   On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the
   north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the
   Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered
   to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front
   during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a
   marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon
   over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the
   Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

   ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
   On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to
   move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of
   the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary
   from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to
   the south of the front during the afternoon.

   On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place
   from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow
   again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be
   favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that
   heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong
   upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central
   U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears
   possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central
   Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the
   forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model
   guidance.

   ..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT