ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 130846
   SPC AC 130846

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak
   instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5.
   Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on
   Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm
   and severe weather potential. 

   The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on
   Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther
   north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak
   instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may
   create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the
   Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger
   scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on
   Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend. 

   A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not
   support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it
   would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS
   Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to
   potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern
   Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
   weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal
   mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather
   threat. 

   Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of
   the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from
   Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but
   significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level
   pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential
   low-end threat difficult.

   ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

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