Placerville, CA (near 1,850 ft. elevation - 95667)

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Expanded Placerville Weather Forecast

Weather Forecast Discussion

914
FXUS66 KSTO 222320
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2019


.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with mild daytime temperatures and light winds through
the weekend. Breezy conditions across the Sacramento Valley on
Monday with a significant winter storm forecast to arrive Tuesday
with impacts extending into the Thanksgiving holiday. Much cooler
temperatures in store for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure will build into northern California tonight and
remain through the weekend. Quiet, mild weather looks to be on tap
for Saturday and Sunday with Valley highs in the upper 60s and 70s,
with mountain temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Low temperatures will
be around average values for late November.

A pattern change begins Monday with a weak system dropping into the
Central Great Basin Monday, bringing breezy north winds to the
Sacramento Valley. Wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph are expected, with
locally higher values in wind prone areas. Elevated fire concerns
are anticipated this day as fuels are extremely dry and and low
relative humidity values will be seen in the afternoon. Winds begin
to decrease Monday evening as a stronger system moves towards the
west coast as the first winter storm of the season arrives.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...

A marked shift in the pattern will commence Tuesday with cool, wet
weather continuing through the Thanksgiving holiday, possibly
extending into Friday.

The culprit is a strong upper low currently over the Bering Sea
which is expected to swing around a building eastern Pacific ridge
and reach the West Coast by midday Tuesday. Strong dynamics
accompanied by a seasonably cold air mass will bring widespread
precipitation to the region. This includes the first significant
rainfall to the Valley as well as heavy snowfall to the Sierra and
Coastal Range. Snow levels crash in response to the cold air aloft
(700-mb temps of -13C) dropping down from the high latitudes.
Accumulating snows are likely down into the upper foothills,
particularly at elevations of 2,500 feet and above, while
potentially lowering further in convective snow showers. The core
of the impacts over the Sierra will be from Tuesday evening
through the overnight hours and into Wednesday. Given the multi-
day nature of this system and intense nature of the upper low,
snow will likely be measured in feet. Numerous showers are likely
to spawn on Thanksgiving Day given instability underneath the deep
low center, some of which may contain some thunderstorms. Unsettled
conditions may continue into Friday as the system may linger per
recent model guidance.

While the heavy precipitation and hazardous travel impacts may be
the bigger story, the much cooler temperatures cannot be forgotten
either. While this weekend`s highs will be in the upper 60s to low
70s, temperatures are likely to drop by at least 20 degrees by the
middle of next week. Valley highs are forecast to be in the upper
40s to low 50s while overnight temperatures range from the mid 20s
to mid 30s. Surprisingly this is only about 5 to 10 degrees below
late November climatology. Of course in the higher terrain,
conditions will be much more wintery in nature. Highs in the 20s
and 30s with lows in the teens are expected.

Overall, confidence is building in the forecast but there does
remain some ensemble spread that needs to be resolved. However,
there is a strong likelihood for hazardous travel during the peak
Thanksgiving travel period. Now is the time to plan accordingly
and make adjustments if needed. ~BRO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions, winds generally less than 10 kts expected. Local
MVFR conditions possible in BR over Northern San Joaquin Valley in
the morning.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday
afternoon for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Clear
Lake/Southern Lake County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta
County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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