Placerville, CA (near 1,850 ft. elevation - 95667)

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

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Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS66 KSTO 181551 AAA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
850 AM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler over the weekend with gusty wind and some precipitation as
Pacific storm moves through. Warmer and drier next week with some
gusty north to east wind Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning Update: Added a little more coverage of chance of
thunderstorms mainly in the Shasta Co area today and this evening in
deference to the HREF Prob of REF >40 dBZ morning forecasts, and
influence of main dynamics. Precip/ frontal band beginning to move
across the NWrn portion of CA with the CAMs indicating this band
will move into Wrn Shasta Co around midday.

Also stratus has formed/advected into Srn Sac Vly with deepening
marine layer to near 3 kft.  JHM

Previous Discussion...IR imagery and radar showing Pacific frontal
system pushing inland over the PacNW attm with southern portion of
baroclinic zone approaching the NW CA coast. Marine layer deepening
ahead of approaching system with coastal stratus extending through
the Delta area. Clouds and wind will be on the increase this morning
as front approaches. Models indicate some associated light precip
spreading into W Shasta county by late morning, then over the
northern third of the CWA by the afternoon. Front continues to push
through the forecast area tonight with models indicating bulk of
precip over the mountains. NAM-12 indicating some post frontal
instability over the Shasta county this evening which may lead to an
isolated thunderstorm. Much cooler temperatures expected today with
highs in the 70s for the Central Valley and 50s to to lower 70s for
the mountains and foothills.

Cold front moves through overnight and weakens with post-frontal
showers possible as associated short wave trough moves through
Sunday. Best chances for precipitation at this time expected in
the eastern foothills and mountains tomorrow during the AM.
Subsidence increases tomorrow afternoon as short wave moves into
the Great Basin and upstream EPAC high begins to build inland.
Max temps Sunday remain well below normal. Storm total QPF over
the weekend looks to be generally below a tenth of an inch in the
Central Valley, except up to around a third of an inch possible in
the Northern Sacramento Valley. Rainfall amounts in the foothills
and mountains are generally around a tenth to upward of an inch
with locally higher amounts possible in the Shasta mountains.

EPAC high builds inland Sunday night into early next week. This
will result in warmer temperatures with some gusty north to east
wind. Strongest wind expected Monday along the west half of the
Sacramento Valley and through favorably oriented gaps and canyons
in the foothills and mountains. This could result in increased
fire weather concerns. Upper 80s forecast for most the Central
Valley Monday with low to mid 90s Tuesday into Wednesday.

PCH

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Clusters and ensembles indicate strong likelihood of hot weather
returning late next week as the mid-week trough exits to the east.
Another round of breezy north winds will be possible behind the
trough on Wednesday night and Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures
warm back up to around 5-10 degrees above average by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions the next 24 hours except for areas MVFR/IFR
conditions in showers after 20Z for KRDD and KRBL, and this morning
and after 00Z Sunday for Sacramento area TAFs. Increasing south to
southwest surface wind gusts after 18Z, 15-25 kts lower elevations
and 25-35 kts over higher terrain.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for Carquinez Strait and Delta, Central Sacramento Valley in
Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte Counties below
1000 Ft, Eastern Mendocino NF, Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity
NF, Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions
of Nevada, Yuba, Placer, Amador and El Dorado Units, Northern
Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft,
Northern San Joaquin Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties
Below 1000 ft. Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units- Northern
Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the
Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak- Beckworth
Peak). Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West
of the Sierra Crest, Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western
Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit, Southern Sacramento Valley in
Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer, Southern Sutter and Solano
Counties Below 1000 Ft.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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