Placerville, CA (near 1,850 ft. elevation - 95667)

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

10 Day Weather Forecast

Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS66 KSTO 102321
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
321 PM PST Mon Dec 10 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
NorCal will continue to sit just south of the more active storm
track impacting the Pacific Northwest. The better chances for
precipitation should wait until Friday and into the weekend.
Before then, expect daily chances for Valley fog the next couple
of days with near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the wake of the earlier frontal passage, visible satellite
imagery shows much of NorCal underneath sunny to partly cloudy
skies. As overnight winds lighten, another round of Valley fog is
likely, particularly from Marysville southward across Sacramento
down toward Modesto and Stockton. As usual, these latter locations
may see fog stick around longer before mixing out by the mid to
late morning. Overall, much of the state can expect near average
readings for early December with Valley highs in the mid to upper
50s with 40s in the mountains.

Increasing cloud cover is anticipated throughout the day on
Tuesday as the next Pacific system approaches the southwestern
Oregon coast. Any precipitation should be limited to more northern
counties such as Shasta and Lassen. By mid-week, another round of
Valley fog is in the forecast for areas south of Sacramento
toward their more favored locations. With general northerly winds
spreading over the Valley, do not expect this fog event to be
nearly as widespread.

By Thursday morning, it could prove to be the coolest day of the
work week as surface winds become nearly calm. However, there are
suggestions of some mid to high level clouds moving through which
add a few degrees to these overnight temperatures. The current
forecast went with mid 30s over Valley locations with low 20s
across the higher terrain. This should be prove to be the last dry
day ahead of the active pattern looming ahead. BRO

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Pacific frontal band forecast to move into/through Norcal Fri/Fri
nite, weakening as it moves into the Sierra. Reasonable confidence
in general around 0.50" in the Shasta mtns and coastal range with
0.50" to 1.0" over the Srn Cascade/Sierra north of the 80/50
corridor with amounts tapering south of Hwy 50. With snow levels
4500-5000 ft, there may be some travel impacts over the mtn passes
then.

Sat expected to be a mostly dry day, except for some light WAA
precip possible over the Sierra. Generally, Norcal should be between
wx systems on Sat ahead of the long wave trof for Sun/Mon. The
amplitude of this system bodes well for precip, but confidence is
lower in amounts and timing as the longer waves usually progress
slower than progged.

The US W coast AR Landfall tool shows a weak AR (Probability of IVT
>250 kg/m/s) over the Pacific and forecast to reach the coast on
12/16 (Sun) preceded by 2 other ARs. The latter has greater
amplitude, ala the long wave trof, extending from 55N to 35N. There
is actually a little moderate IVT value (>500 kg/m/s) embedded
within the plume between 38N-43N, which is line with at least most
of Norcal and our CWA. The plume is forecast to become parallel to
the coastline and erode/weaken as it moves inland which doesn`t
bode well for significant precip E of Sierra, but will at least
result in a wetter storm for Norcal then its predecessor. The lack
of duration over our CWA and lack of an orthogonal trajectory to
the Sierra will keep precip amounts lower than a more favorable
trajectory and orientation. Very early, preliminary estimates of
liquid precip for the Sun-Mon storm suggests the coastal range
will be favored over the Sierra with 1-3 inch amounts, 1-2 inches
over the Sierra north of the 80/50 corridor, and over an inch in
the Nrn Sac Vly tapering to two-thirds of an inch around DTS, and
a third of an inch around Modesto. This system should cause
greater snow impacts over the Sierra Passes than the Fri system
with snow levels down to around 5 kft. Daytime temperatures will
remain near or a little below normal throughout the extended
period with occasional breezy south winds as weather systems move
through the area.    JHM

&&

&&

.AVIATION...

Lingering MVFR conditions around KSCK/KMOD early this evening before
IFR/LIFR conditions due to stratus/fog are forecast to return from
around KMYV southward to KSAC-KMOD after 06z Tue, persisting through
18z Tue. Light Nly wind forecast to preclude fog over Nrn Sac Vly,
but bank stratus/fog into the lower Ern foothills (Mother Lode)
elevations. Increase in clouds from north to south AOA 10 kft over
TAF sites after 12z-18z Tue.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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