758
FXUS66 KSTO 111911
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1211 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Monsoonal moisture brings thunderstorms to the Sierra &
   adjacent areas Sunday into early next week, best chances
   Monday-Tuesday with Valley showers

-  Warming trend on Sunday into next week with widespread
   Moderate HeatRisk by Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pockets of high clouds stream across the Valley today but
generally quiet weather conditions expected to continue. Temps
will be fairly similar to Friday albeit a few degrees warmer
through the Delta and greater Sacramento Area. Afternoon highs
briefly cool Sunday before a warming trend ensues and we see
Moderate HeatRisk develop across the Valley and foothills by
midweek next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest
stretch with mid 90s to triple-digit highs expected, hottest over
the northern Sacramento Valley. Daily onshore winds and active
Delta breeze will help to give some relief with gusts up to 15-25
mph each day. Be sure to practice heat safety!

Our biggest area of concern will be monitoring the push of
monsoonal moisture moving into our area Sunday into next week.
With it bring chances for showers and a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms across our area each day, with Monday - Tuesday as
our widest impact days. There remains uncertainty regarding how
low in elevation thunderstorms will occur with limiting factors of
lack of available energy in the morning hours and antecedent
cloud cover. We will continue to monitor precipitation
developments and if nocturnal thunderstorms are expected into the
Valley or near the Coastal Range for Tuesday AM.

Sierra thunderstorm chances start on Sunday, south of I-80, near
10-20%, then increase to 15-30% Monday-Tuesday along the crest with
lingering chances [5-10%] on Thursday mainly south of Hwy 50. Main
impacts with any developed storm will be lightning and new fire
starts, gusty outflow winds, and brief rain showers. Overall, we
are expected daily elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into
Thursday with highest impacts Monday-Tuesday. Be sure to check
back in with the forecast and have multiple ways to receive
information, especially those with mountain travel and recreation
plans.

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24
hours. Surface wind gusts from south to southwest around 10 to 20
kts in the Sacramento Valley, Delta and Sierra Crest, with
northwesterly surface wind gusts around 10 to 20 kts in northern
San Joaquin Valley through 06Z Sunday and again after 18Z Sunday.
Increasing mid to high level clouds will bring periods of BKN to
OVC conditions around 10-25 kft along with virga and isolated
shower potential Sunday. 10-20% chance of thunderstorms over the
Sierra south of I-80 on Sunday after 18Z bringing local MVFR/IFR
conditions with continued threat into next week.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$